Expert Judgment in Weather Forecasting: Reliability, Validity, and Amount of Information

这一提议考察了天气预报员预期如何利用额外信息与他们实际如何利用这些信息之间的差距。该提案特别研究了这种差距是如何随着新信息的数量和复杂性而扩大的。第一项研究考察了自动化信息获取和信息加工对判断信度和效度的影响。第二项研究考察了信息获取的有效性和可靠性作为信息量的函数。第三个研究重点是信息加工的信度和效度。第四项研究考察了信息获取与信息加工之间的交互作用与信息量的关系。这项研究的结果将有助于我们对天气预报和其他领域的专家判断的理解。它应该具有实际意义，帮助专家充分利用技术，增加他们可获得的信息量。

This proposal examines the gap between what how well weather forecasters are expected to use additional information and how well they actually use it. The proposal specifically examines how that gap widens as a function of the amount and complexity of new information. The first study examines the effects on judgemental reliability and validity of automating information acquisition and information processing. The second study examines the validity and reliability of informatyion acquisition as a function of amount of information. The third study focusses on the reliability and validity of information processing. The fourth study investigates the interaction between information acquisition and information processing as a function of amount of information. The results of this research will contribute to our understanding of expert judgement in weather forecasting and other fields. It should have practical implications for helping experts make the best use of technology that increases the amount of information available to them.