Improved Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Drought in Arid Regions

在美国的干旱和半干旱地区，干旱可能对直接用水者和与用水有关的其他活动造成实质性甚至灾难性的经济后果。传统上，农业、市政和工业活动等对河外用水的影响是在干旱期间测量的。到目前为止，对河内和非改道用水的影响在很大程度上被忽视了，减少直接改道的次要（与市场有关的）经济影响也被忽视了。将建立一个模型，衡量直接和次要的经济影响，包括对市场和非市场商品的影响。这种经济分析将结合投入产出技术和离散随机规划分析，并将由历史气象数据和水文模型驱动。它还将反映体制和立法方面的制约因素，并估计农场、企业和家庭对干旱的反应。一个真实的案例研究将用于校准和测试模型，现有的供水和储存系统将针对不同的灾难情景进行测试。

In arid and semiarid regions of the United States, droughts can have substantive and even disastrous economic consequences on direct water users and on other activities related to the use of water. Traditionally, impacts on off- stream water uses such as in agriculture, municipal and in industrial activities, have been measured during droughts. Effects on in-stream and non-diversionary water uses have been heretofore largely ignored, as have the secondary (market-linked) economic impacts of reduced direct water diversions. A model will be developed where direct and secondary economic impacts will be measured including the effects on both market and non-market goods. This economic analysis will incorporate input-output techniques with discrete stochastic programming analysis and will be driven by historic meteorological data and hydrologic models. It will also reflect institutional and legislative constraints, and estimated farm, business and household reactions to drought. A real case study will be used to calibrate and test the model, and the existing water supply and storage systems will be tested against diverse disaster scenarios.