Cross-National Differences in Probability Judgment

在概率判断上存在着巨大的、可靠的差异 由美国等西方国家的个人制造， 以及许多亚洲国家的情况。 大多数差异涉及 校准。 (Good校准存在，例如，如果 40%的事件被分配概率判断为40% 实际发生）。 然而，歧视方面的差异 也被记录在案。 （辨别力是一种能力。 当目标事件发生时， （当它不发生时，它会发生）。 几个潜在 对观察到的差异的解释将进行检验， 在美国和几个亚洲地区的主题。 的 一个主要的研究假设是， 处理习惯植根于不同的文化传统， 包括与社会互动有关的问题。 另一 主张是，差异是以前的人工制品 研究人员对判断任务的抽样。 根据第三 解释，区别是特定的特定判断 主题和学生主题。 最后的解释是， 这些差异反映了相对的国家差异 判断质量各方面的重要性。 本研究 承诺洞察普遍的判断机制，以及 特定文化所特有的。 它还应该提供指导 关于跨国交流与合作的问题 以及改进决策技术及其可移植性。

There are large, reliable differences in probability judgments made by individuals in Western countries like the United States and those in many Asian countries. Most differences pertain to calibration. (Good calibration exists, for example, if about 40% of the events that are assigned probability judgments of 40% actually happen.) However, differences in discrimination have been documented, too. (Discrimination is the ability of judgments to sharply distinguish instances when a target event will occur from those when it will not.) Several potential explanations of the observed differences will be tested with subjects in the United States and several Asian locations. The major research hypothesis is that the variations rest on cognitive processing habits rooted in different cultural traditions, including ones pertaining to social interactions. Another proposition is that the differences are an artifact of previous researchers' sampling of judgment tasks. According to a third explanation, the distinctions are specific to particular judgment topics and to student subjects. A final explanation says that the differences reflect cross-national variations in the relative importance of various aspects of judgment quality. This research promises insights into universal judgment mechanisms as well as ones peculiar to given cultures. It should also provide guidance about problems in cross-national communication and collaboration and for improving decision technologies and their transferability.