Collaborative Research on Micro Models of Criminal Careers

这是一项关于犯罪生涯的合作研究（与Land合作，SES92-10437）。这项研究将测试两种相互竞争的犯罪职业模式。有一种模型认为，罪犯分为两类（频繁和偶尔），而且每一类罪犯在被定罪一定次数后停止犯罪活动的概率不同。第二个模型假设群体中的每个个体都有从事犯罪行为的倾向，并且个体的犯罪率在整个生命过程中保持不变。本研究将采用混合泊松回归模型和潜在阈值正态回归模型来分析来自三个纵向数据集的犯罪活动数据。这项研究将增加我们对个人一生中的犯罪模式以及与犯罪职业相关的社会和个人特征的理解。

This is a collaborative study on criminal careers (with Land, SES92-10437). The study will test two competing models of criminal careers. One model suggests that there are two classes of offenders (frequents and occasional) and that each has a different probability that an offender desists criminal activity after a certain number of convictions. The second models assumes that each individual in a population has a propensity for engaging in criminal behavior, and that the offending rate for an individual remains constant over the life course. The study will employ mixture Poisson regression models and latent-threshold normal regression models to analyze data from three longitudinal data sets on criminal activity. This study will increase our understanding of patterns of crime over individuals' lifetime and of the social and individual characteristics associated with criminal careers.