Low Frequency Variability in the Extratropical Atmosphere

该项目包括与大气动力学和可预测性有关的若干重要课题。罗宾逊博士将采用一套模型，从简单到复杂的循环模型，来检验以下情况：(1)大气模式和大气中低频变率的时空尺度决定因素；(2)热带和中纬度地区对低频变率的相对贡献；(3)大气可预测性对初始大尺度流型的依赖程度；(4)美国夏季气候（和降雨）与海洋表面温度年际变化的关系，特别是在热带地区。这项研究建立在他之前的研究基础上，他在之前的研究中证明了天气尺度涡旋与大气低频变率之间的强耦合，即天气涡旋是低频现象的主要能量来源。这对大气流动的可预测性具有重要意义。

This project encompasses a number of important topics relating to the dynamics and predictability of the atmosphere. Dr. Robinson will employ a suite of models, ranging from simple to complex general circulation models, to examine the following: (1) what determines the temporal and spatial scales of the low frequency variability in atmospheric models and in the atmosphere, (2) the relative contributions of the tropics and midlatitudes to low frequency variability, (3) the extent of dependence of atmospheric predictability on the initial large-scale flow pattern, (4) the relationship between US summer climate (and rainfall) to the interannual variability of sea surface temperatures, particularly in the tropics. This research builds on his prior studies in which he demonstrated the strong coupling between synoptic scale eddies and low frequency variability of the atmosphere, namely that the synoptic eddies serve as the principal energy sources for low frequency phenomena. This has important implications for the predictability of atmospheric flows.