Long-term Sustainability of Atlantic White Cedar Swamps in the Pinelands Biosphere Reserve

拟议的研究将确定几个生态终点，以反映松树地大西洋白杉湿地的过去和现在的状况。将描述大西洋白雪松沼泽的范围、大小和质量的时间和地理趋势及其与其他景观成分的空间关系，并确定导致任何观察到的变化的因素。在地理信息系统的背景下，将开发一个人类与大西洋白雪松沼泽相互作用的模型，该模型既包括马尔可夫演替模型，也包括社会和经济因素。使用这个范例，几个反映不同制度政策的场景(例如：（如公共土地管理、管制）和过渡概率，并将评估每种制度情景对大西洋白雪松沼泽生态可持续性的影响。研究结果将直接应用于该地区的自然资源管理和环境政策决策。

The proposed research will define several ecological endpoints that reflect the past and present status of Atlantic white cedar wetlands in the Pinelands. Temporal and geographic trends in the extent, size, and quality of Atlantic white cedar swamps and their spatial relationship to other landscape components will be described, and the factors responsible for any observed changes will be identified. A model for human interactions with Atlantic white cedar swamps that incorporates both a Markovian succesional model and social and economic factors will be developed within the context of a geographic information system. Using this paradigm, several scenarios reflecting different institutional policies(e.g., public lands management, regulation) and transition probabilities will be developed, and the effect of each institutional scenario on the ecological sustainability of Atlantic white cedar swamps will be assessed. The results will have direct application to natural resource management and environmental policy decision making in the region.