Behavioral Determinants of Household Financial Decisions

现有的证据表明，普通人群中的经济知识严重怀疑现代经济理论所设想的个人财务规划是高度复杂的深思熟虑的结果。大多数人甚至连最基本的经济计算都做不好，很少有人掌握更高级的概念，如复利、风险回报权衡、通货膨胀调整或实际保险费与精算公平保险费之间的差异，这些概念支配着生命周期分配问题的核心权衡。虽然可以想象，不老练的个人可以表现得好像他们做出了合理的知情决定，但在个人财务规划的背景下，这是不可能的。 因此，对经济知识、相关发展经验以及财务信息和咨询来源的研究应能为家庭财务决策提供相当多的启示，并应有助于设计旨在影响这些决策的公共政策。 本研究共分三个部分。 第一部分分析了一项新的独特的家庭调查的数据，包括人口统计学、发展经历、财务信息/建议的来源、经济知识和当前的财务行为。 数据进行分析，以确定和量化的发展经验，信息来源，知识和财务决策的决定因素。第2部分涉及后续调查的设计和初步分析。 第三部分与弗吉尼亚大学的乔纳森·斯金纳合作，使用收入动态面板研究对经济脆弱性进行了实证分析。特别是，该研究考察了退休前后的消费轨迹与累积财富之间的关系，以检验退休后消费下降反映了有远见的规划的假设，而不是这种下降是由于储蓄不足造成的。

The existing evidence on economic literacy among the general population casts serious doubt on the proposition that personal financial planning is the consequence of highly sophisticated deliberation, as envisioned in modern economic theory. Much of the population is ill-equipped to make even the most basic economic calculations, and few have mastered more advanced concepts such as compound interest, risk-return tradeoffs, inflation adjustments, or the difference between actual and actuarially fair insurance premiums, that govern the tradeoffs at the heart of the life cycle allocation problem. Although it is conceivable that unsophisticated individuals could act as if they make reasonably well-informed decisions, this is unlikely in the context of personal financial planning. Thus, the study of economic literacy, relevant developmental experiences, and sources of financial information and advice should shed considerable light on household financial decision making, and should aid in the design of public policies that are designed to influence these decisions. This research consists of three parts. Part 1 involves an analysis of data from a new and unique household survey on demographics, developmental experiences, sources of financial information/advice, economic knowledge, and current financial behavior. Data are analyzed to identify and quantify the determinants of developmental experiences, information sources, knowledge, and financial decisions. Part 2 involves the design and preliminary analysis of a follow-on survey. Part 3, which is joint with Jonathan Skinner of the University of Virginia, involves an empirical analysis of economic vulnerabilities, using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. In particular, the study examines the relationship between consumption trajectories, before and after retirement, and accumulated wealth, in order to test the hypothesis that the observed decline in consumption after retirement reflects farsighted planning, against the view that this decline res ults from inadequate saving.