SGER: Explaining the Surprising Accuracy of Mail Surveys

调查数据在学术研究和公共政策制定中的许多重要应用的价值取决于所提供的评估的准确性。这项用于探索研究的小额拨款(SGER)将收集1994年俄亥俄州全州选举的数据，作为实地试验的一部分，以检验问卷格式对预测选举结果的邮寄调查和电话采访方法的预测价值的影响。之前对俄亥俄州全州选举的分析表明，自我管理的邮件调查比电话调查提供更准确的预测。对于这一令人惊讶的结果，一个可能的解释是，邮寄调查采用了与电话调查不同的问卷格式。本研究将通过操纵1994年俄亥俄州选举前邮寄和电话两种方式管理的调查问卷的形式，来检验问卷格式对准确性的影响。此外，这项研究还将探讨对电话受访者的强化回电对准确性的影响。这项研究工作应该既推进基本的测量测量理论，又为对最大化测量精度感兴趣的分析师提供一套实用的建议。

The value of many important applications of survey data in academic research and public policy-making hinges on the accuracy of the assessments provided. This Small Grant for Exploratory Research (SGER) will collect data from the 1994 state-wide elections in Ohio as part of a field experiment to examine the impact of questionnaire format on the predictive value of mail surveys versus telephone interview methods for forecasting election results. Previous analyses of statewide elections in Ohio have demonstrated that self-administered mail surveys provide more accurate forecasts than telephone surveys. One possible explanation for this surprising result is that the mail surveys employed a different questionnaire format than the telephone surveys. This research will examine the impact of questionnaire format on accuracy by manipulating the form of the questionnaire administered by both mail and telephone modes immediately prior to the 1994 Ohio elections. In addition, this research will explore the impact of enhanced call-backs to telephone respondents on accuracy. This research effort should both advance basic survey measurement theory and provide a set of practical recommendations to analysts interested in maximizing measurement accuracy.