Linking Domestic and International Sources of Alliance Formation

用来解释国际关系的主流理论（新现实主义）认为，国家安全决策的主要来源是国际体系中狗咬狗的世界。这一理论的核心是这样一种信念，即国家的国际行为是由无政府体制内国家自我保护的指令所驱动的。然而，在国内政治研究中，占主导地位的方法是认为政治决策是由政治家继续掌权的愿望驱动的。本研究结合这些见解，从制定国家政策的政治家的政治生存角度对国家的国际行为进行建模。这种模式结合了现实主义和国内的担忧，因为政治家必须担心外国军事威胁对其政权的生存，以及来自国内权力竞争对手的内部威胁。研究人员认为，政权维护的约束比国际无政府状态的约束更有约束力，这种综合视角解释了系统方法所解释的行为，以及新现实主义无法解释的情况。正式模型对国际行为的许多方面产生了具体的、可证伪的主张，但研究人员打算把重点放在大多数新现实主义模型的核心行为上——安全联盟的形成。通过汇编有关考虑加入联盟的国家的经济、军事和政治特征的现有数据，以及收集有关感知到的国内和国际威胁等参数的新信息，研究人员评估了解释联盟形成模式的政权保存模型的强度。＊＊＊

9515149 Gilligan The dominant theory used to explain international relations (neo-realism) finds the primary source of national security decisions in the dog-eat-dog world of the international system. At the core of this theory is the belief that the international behavior of states is driven by the dictates of national self-preservation within an anarchic system. In studies of domestic politics, however, the dominant approach is to think of political decisions as driven by politicians' desire to stay in power. This investigation combines these insights by modeling the international behavior of the state in terms of the political survival of the politicians who make national policy. This model incorporates both realist and domestic concerns, as politicians must worry about foreign military threats to their regime's survival as well as internal threats from domestic rivals for power. The researchers argue that the constraints of regime preservation are much more binding than the constraints of international anarchy alone, and that such a combined perspective explains the behaviors accounted for by a systemic approach as well as those cases neo-realism can not explain. The formal model generates specific and falsifiable claims regarding many aspects of international behavior, but the investigators intend to focus on a central behavior for most neo-realist models - - security alliance formation. By compiling existing data on the economic, military, and political characteristics of nations considering joining an alliance, as well as gathering new information on parameters such as perceived domestic and international threat, the investigators evaluate the strength of a model of regime preservation in explaining patterns of alliance formation. ***