Stochastic downscaling precipitation temperature and wind fields in high spatial and temporal resolution for hydrodynamical and hydrological modeling

量化气候变化对水文系统可能产生的影响具有重要的科学和实际意义。即使是最近在区域气候模拟的进展不允许直接使用其输出的详细模拟水文和水动力系统。其原因是所需数据的高空间和时间分辨率，并且由于系统的非线性，必须很好地表示概率密度函数-而不仅仅是均值（和方差）。在建议的研究框架内，将开发一个新的风速和风向降尺度模型。然后，该模型将结合降水和温度降尺度模型使用，以获得博登湖的水动力学建模和相邻的中尺度流域的水文建模的输入字段。

The quantification of possible climate change effects on hydrological systems is of great scientific and practical importance. Even recent advances in regional climate modeling do not allow a direct use of their output for detailed modeling of hydrological and hydrodynamical systems. The reasons for this are the high spatial and temporal resolution of the required data, and due to the non-linearity of the systems the probability density functions have to be well represented – not just means (and variances). In the framework of the suggested research, a new downscaling model for wind speed and direction will be developed. This model will then be used in combination with precipitation and temperature downscaling models to obtain input fields for the hydrodynamical modeling of Lake Constance and the hydrological modeling of an adjacent mesoscale catchment.