Fuzzy Rule-Based Modeling of Extremes under Climatic Change

9613654 9614017 Duckstein Bogardi该项目旨在开发和测试基于模糊规则的模型，以预测全球气候变化下的区域干旱和洪水特征。这项工作分为四项任务：1)构建基于模糊规则的模型，将每日大气环流模式CP类型的时间序列与洪水事件特征和干旱发生严重程度指数联系起来；2)使用基于GCM的气候变化情景来生成未来可能的CP类型时间序列和相应的旱涝概率；3)调查该方法中的不确定性以及这些不确定性的社会经济后果；以及4)制定并对稳健的缓解措施进行排序。预计这项研究的好处将是：一个简单易用的模型，将产生气候变化下可能发生的水旱灾害的时间序列，可以更新和结合，并能够接受模糊预测；社会和经济后果清单；缓解行动清单，以及这些行动的初步标准排名；以及将该模型应用于格兰德河上游和密苏里河流域。***

9613654 9614017 Duckstein Bogardi The project is directed to the development and testing of a fuzzy rule-based model for predicting the characteristics of regional droughts and floods under global climate change. The work is divided into four tasks: 1) the construction of the fuzzy rule-based model relating the time series of daily Atmospheric Circulation Pattern CP types with flood events characteristics and drought occurrence severity index; 2) use of GCM based climate change scenarios to generate possible future time series of CP type and consequential flood and drought probabilities; 3) investigate the uncertainties in the approach and the socio-economic consequences of these uncertainties; and 4) develop and rank robust mitigating actions. The benefits from this research are expected to be: an easy-to-use model that will yield time series of possible floods and droughts under climate change that can be updated and coupled and can accept fuzzy forecasts; and inventory of social and economic consequences; an inventory of mitigation actions with a preliminary criteria ranking of these actions; and the application of the model to the upper Rio Grande and the Missouri River basins. ***