Equilibrium with Bounded Rationality in Economic Games

现代经济理论是建立在所有经济主体都是完全理性的假设之上的，这意味着他们总是知道什么对他们来说是最好的，永远不会犯错误。然而，观察到的行为是嘈杂的，不能精确预测。个人层面上的少量随机性可能会对人们互动时的经济结果产生很大影响。该项目开发了一个容易出错的决策的现实模型，用于解释观察到的人类行为与标准经济分析预测之间的许多差异。这种方法被用来评估其他类型的拍卖和协调买卖双方活动的其他机制。其他应用还包括对公共事业的慈善捐款、战略谈判和行业内竞争。在每一种情况下，我们都使用了人类实验的数据来完善我们的方法。

PROJECT ABSTRACT Modern economic theory is built on the assumption that all economic agents are completely rational, meaning that they always know what is best for them and never make mistakes. Observed behavior however, is noisy and cannot be predicted precisely. Small amounts of randomness at the individual level may have a large effect on economic outcomes when people interact. This project develops a realistic model of error-prone decision making that is used to explain a number of discrepancies between observed human behavior and the predictions of standard economic analysis. This approach is used to evaluate alternative types of auctions and other mechanisms for coordinating the activities of buyers and sellers. Other applications include charitable contributions to public causes, strategic bargaining, and intra-industry competition. In each case, data from laboratory experiments with human subjects are used to refine our approach.