Mathematical Sciences: Methods for Developing and Evaluating Computer Models Used in Integrated Assessment

9634297伯克在这个项目中，调查人员将开发综合评估中使用的计算机模型所必需的方法工具。涉及三种方法论贡献：1)将一个模型的输出连接到另一个模型的输入的通量耦合器，2)评估耦合计算机模型中的不确定性的方法，以及3)耦合计算机模型的统计诊断。通量耦合器将一组单位中的模型输出转换为新单位和时空尺度中的模型输入。用于评估不确定性的工具充分利用了重抽样程序的最新进展，以表示关键模型参数和产出的抽样分布。诊断技术采用了以非线性方式将多个输入连接到多个输出的新方法。因此，它们为判断耦合计算机模型的性能提供了一个标尺。开发和测试方法工具的实验室是一个耦合的计算机模型，将洛杉矶盆地的当地天气、当地空气质量和人类室外用水联系起来。人类与更大的物理和生物环境之间的相互作用通常是用大规模的计算机模型来模拟的。在这个项目中，研究人员重点研究人类用水如何影响当地的气候和空气质量，进而又受到当地气候和空气质量的影响。例如，户外用水对造成城市雾霾的当地温度和气象条件有影响。但在这类模拟中使用的计算机模型需要仔细评估。该项目的主要产品是开发和评估用于理解人与环境相互作用的计算机模型的新工具。这些新工具包括：1)允许计算机模型更有效地在它们之间传输数据的方法；2)允许更好地描述计算机结果中的统计不确定性的方法；以及3)更彻底地分析计算机模型使用提供给它们的信息的情况的技术。这些工具都解决了一个更普遍的问题，即在广泛的应用中改进大规模计算机模拟。

9634297 Berk In this project, the investigators will develop methodological tools essential for computer models used in integrated assessments. Three kinds of methodological contributions are involved: 1) a flux coupler that links output from one model to input from another, 2) methods to assess uncertainties in coupled computer models, and 3) statistical diagnostics for coupled computer models. The flux coupler transforms model output in one set of units, and for particular spatial and temporal scales, into model input in new units and spatial temporal scales. The tools for assessing uncertainty capitalize on recent advances in resampling procedures to represent sampling distributions for key model parameters and outputs. The diagnostic techniques exploit new ways to link multiple inputs to multiple outputs in a nonlinear fashion. As such, they provide a yardstick with which to judge the performance of coupled computer models. The laboratory for developing and testing the methodological tools is a coupled computer model linking local weather, local air quality, and human outdoor water use for the Los Angeles Basin. The interactions between humans and the larger physical and biological environment are often simulated with large-scale computer models. In this project, the investigators focus on how human water use affects local climate and air quality and then, in turn, is affected by local climate and air quality. Outdoor water use, for instance, has impacts on local temperature and the meteorological conditions that contribute to urban smog. But the computer models used in such simulations need to be carefully evaluated. The key products of this project are new tools for developing and assessing the computer models used to understand human-environmental interactions. The new tools include: 1) a means to allow computer models to more effectively transfer data between them, 2) methods that allow the statistical uncertainties in the computer results to be better described, and 3) techniques for analyzing more thoroughly how well the computer models are using the information provided to them. These tools all speak to the more general issue of improving large-scale computer simulations in a wide variety of applications.