A Flexible Parametric Approach to Nonlinear Data Analysis

9707771 Hamilton这个项目开发了检验经济关系是否非线性的新方法和选择用来描述数据的特定非线性规范的新方法。这个想法是将潜在的关系视为潜在布朗场的结果。该潜在场的总体参数由最大似然估计。一旦确定了它的概率规律，就可以得到关于底层关系的最优推断。潜在的经济应用包括对商业周期进行更好的统计描述和理解，对石油冲击的影响进行建模，分析货币政策如何影响经济，以及研究不同国家收入水平的趋同。?？

9707771 Hamilton This project develops new tests of whether an economic relation his nonlinear and a new method for choosing a particular nonlinear specification to use to describe the data. The idea is to view the underlying relation as the outcome of a latent Brownian field. The population parameters of this latent field are estimated by maximum likelihood. Once its probability law has been specified, optimal inferences about the underlying relation can be obtained. Potential economic applications include arriving at a better statistical description and understanding of business cycles, modeling the effects of oil shocks, analyzing how monetary policy affects the economy, and studying the convergence of income levels across different countries. ??