Electoral Systems, Party Strategies and Bargaining Complexity

政治理论中一个长期存在的论点是，使用基于单一成员区的多数选举制度与稳定的政府有关。相反，比例代表制（PR）的使用与支离破碎的政策和“软弱”的联合政府有关。由于公共关系政策的多样性，为这些观点辩护的宏观政治分析在某种程度上是不确定的。本研究通过微观政治方法解决了这个问题，重点关注了12个政党的政党和选民策略的性质。对于其中的九个国家（比利时、英国、丹麦、法国、德国、爱尔兰、意大利、卢森堡和荷兰），基于1979年的调查和精英数据，设计了一个“多项概率”选举模型。在以色列，根据1992年和1996年的调查和宣言数据构建了一个条件logit模型。这些模型将通过纳入政党对选举和经济动荡的反应，扩展到分析这些国家至今的选举。这些数据被波兰和俄罗斯的新信息所补充。就波兰而言，将结合民调数据、精英访谈和政党宣言来研究政党和选民在多数/PR混合选举制度背景下的战略行为。在俄罗斯，精英访谈和对政党宣言的研究将用于构建与政治派别相关的政策空间的性质。这项研究的重点是派系在高度分散和不确定的政治局势中联合起来的动机。该研究的理论目的是了解在不同选举制度背景下派系和政党形成的本质。通过以这种方式“内生化”政党，希望从长远来看，这项研究将导致对这些不同政治所表现出的政党结构和联盟行为的明显差异的解释。

A long-standing argument in political theory is that the use of a majoritarian electoral system, based on single member districts, is associated with stable government. Conversely, the use of proportional representation (PR) is associated with fragmented policies and `weak` coalition governments. Macro-political analyses to justify these arguments are somewhat inconclusive, because of the wide variety of PR policies. This research addresses this question by micro-political methods focusing on the nature of party and voter strategies in twelve polities. For nine of these polities (Belgium, Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands) a `multinomial probit` electoral model has been devised, based on 1979 survey and elite data. In Israel, a conditional logit model has been constructed based on 1992 and 1996 surveys and manifesto data. These models will be extended to analyze elections in these countries to the present day, by incorporating party responses to electoral and economic disturbances. These data are augmented by new information on Poland and Russia. For Poland, a combination of opinion poll data, elite interviews and party manifestos will be used to study strategic behavior by parties and voters, in the context of a mixed majoritarian/PR electoral system. In Russia, elite interviews and study of party manifestos will be used to structure the nature of the policy space of relevance to political factions. This research focuses on the incentives for factions to coalesce in a political situation which is highly fragmented and uncertain. The theoretical purpose of the research is to understand the nature of the formation of factions and parties in the context of differing electoral systems. By `endogenizing` parties in this fashion, it is hoped that the research will lead, in the long run, to an account of the obvious differences, in party structure and coalition behavior, displayed by these various polities.