Determinants and Effects of Fiscal Consolidations

由于各种原因，财政整顿是许多工业化国家和发展中国家的当务之急。这项研究的目的是调查财政整顿的决定因素、宏观经济效应、政治效应和持久性。该项目围绕三个主要问题进行组织。第一，财政调整的宏观经济效应。最近在这方面的工作表明，这些可能取决于调整的构成。这个问题是通过基于相对非结构化的向量自回归的系统调查来分析的，该回归使用了20个经合组织国家的季度和年度数据。此外，还研究了伴随财政整顿的货币和汇率政策等政策的作用。此外，这项研究将通过使用比迄今所做的更精细的细分来更深入地研究合并的构成。第二，合并的政治后果。这显然是一个最重要的问题。因此，对巩固的政府发生了什么进行了分析，特别是关于削减开支与增税的影响。第三，系统地研究了合并的政治决定因素，特别是关于行政部门各自为政的概念和预算机构的作用，这两者在理论文献中都发挥了重要作用。所有这些问题都是针对经合组织国家和美国各州和地方进行调查的。

For a variety of reasons, fiscal consolidation is the order of the day in many industrialized and developing countries. The purpose of this research is to investigate the determinants, macroeconomic effects, political effects, and durability of fiscal consolidations. The project is organized around three main sets of issues. First, the macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustments. Recent work in this area has shown that these are likely to depend on the composition of the adjustment. This issue is analyzed via a systematic investigation based on relatively unstructured vector auto regressions using both quarterly and annual data on 20 OECD countries. In addition, the role of policies such as monetary and exchange rate policies that have accompanied fiscal consolidations is investigated . Furthermore, this research will go deeper into the composition of consolidations by using a more refined breakdown than has been done so far. Second, the political consequences of consolidations. This is obviously an issue of primary importance. Hence, what happened to governments that consolidate is analyzed, with particular regard to the effects of spending cuts vs. tax increases. Third, the political determinants of consolidations, with particular regard to the notion of fragmentation of the executive and the role of budget institutions, both of which have played and important role in the theoretical literature are investigated in a systematic way. All these issues are investigated for OECD countries and US states and localities.