Investigations in the Theory of Confirmation and Inductive Inference

这个项目包括一系列的研究证实理论和归纳推理的性质。第一部分旨在加深我们对一种被称为论证推理的推理方案的理解。在它里面，从证据到假设的归纳推理通过在前提上加上适当的一般假设而成为演绎的（证明的）。事实证明，这是科学史上经常使用的一种策略，作为控制归纳风险的一种方式。主要研究者将寻求这些推论的进一步例子，并试图理解这些推论中的一个特殊类别如何能够自我验证，即推论的成功也为一般假设提供了支持。在第二部分中，主要研究者将通过发展一个概率论的公理系统来寻求理解证实理论的贝叶斯处理的弱点和优点。公理系统将不会被设计得尽可能地简约，而是基于关于证实的性质的直观上不同的承诺。这将使贝叶斯方案的各种吸引人的特性与其他方案区分开来。最后，主要研究者将简要探讨几个有关归纳推理的异端邪说。

This project comprises a series of studies into confirmation theory and the nature of inductive inference. The first part is designed to deepen our understanding of a scheme of inference known as demonstrative inference. In it, an inductive inference from evidence to hypothesis is rendered deductive (demonstrative) by the addition of suitable general assumptions to the premises. This turns out to be a strategy used quite frequently in the history of science as a way of controlling inductive risk. The principal investigator will seek further examples of these inferences and also attempt to understand how it is possible for a special class of these inferences to be self-validating in the sense that the success of the inference also supplies support for the general assumptions. In the second part, the principal investigator will seek to understand the weaknesses and strengths of the Bayesian treatment of confirmation theory by developing an axiom system for probability theory. The axiom system will not be designed to be as parsimonious as possible, but rather to be based on intuitively distinct commitments concerning the nature of confirmation. This will enable various of the appealing properties of the Bayesian scheme to be distinguished from others. Finally the principal investigator will briefly explore several heresies pertaining to inductive inference.