Edifice Sector Failure at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: Documenting the Failure Dynamics of a Hydrothermally-Altered Edifice in Three-Dimensions

[909096783] voight和elsworth火山的灾难性结构破坏的可能性和相关的危险影响现在已经得到了充分的认识，但是除了在圣海伦斯火山的一项研究外，人们对崩塌的机制知之甚少。1997年12月蒙特塞拉特岛的主要大厦倒塌为全面分析倒塌提供了一个不同寻常的机会。这次失败发生在Soufriere火山的南侧，产生了一场到达海岸的碎片雪崩，并引发了一次火山爆炸。这次失败已经有了很好的记录，蒙特塞拉特火山观测站收集了大量的火山监测数据；我们中的一个人，BV，是这个组织的成员。我们建议使用以前在火山分析中没有使用过的强大的计算机建模工具来分析该火山的变形和稳定性。该研究将评估代表逐渐到突然倒塌的现实模型，以严格的方式检查地震荷载的影响，并考虑从监测数据预测倒塌的潜力。本研究结果可能对其他火山潜在结构破坏的评估产生重大影响，对火山灾害管理具有重要意义。

9909673Voight and ElsworthThe potential for catastrophic structural failure of volcanoes and related hazards implications are now well recognized, but apart from a study at Mount St Helens, the mechanisms of collapse are poorly understood. The major edifice failure on Montserrat in December 1997 provides an unusual opportunity for a comprehensive analysis of collapse. The failure occurred on the altered south flank of Soufriere Hills volcano, generated a debris avalanche that reached the coast, and triggered a volcanic blast. The failure has been well documented, and abundant volcano monitoring data have been collected by Montserrat Volcano Observatory; one of us, BV, is a member of this organization. We propose to analyze the deformation and stability of this volcano, using powerful computer-modeling tools not used previously in volcano analyses. The study will evaluate realistic models representing gradual to sudden collapse, examine the effects of earthquake loading in a rigorous fashion, and consider the potential for collapse prediction from monitored data. The results of this study are likely to have a significant impact on evaluations of potential structural failure at other volcanoes, with an important bearing on volcano hazard management.