The Impact of Public Opinion, the Party Balance, Interest Groups, and Social Movement Organizations on Congressional Support for Policy Change

Burstein，PaulSES-0001509两个相关的问题长期以来一直是关于民主政府的学术和公共辩论的核心。第一，民主国家的公共政策是否受到全体公众的强烈影响？其次，在所有民主国家中，为影响政策而创建的组织--政治、利益集团和社会运动组织（SMO）--是否有助于公众影响政策，或者它们是否使特定群体能够在大多数公众反对的情况下获得他们想要的政策？民主理论的支持者认为，民主政府对公众舆论作出反应，总的来说，政治组织在公众舆论面前对政策几乎没有直接影响。 另一些理论则认为民意对政策的影响很小，认为政治组织对政策有很强的直接影响。本研究将检验这一争论所产生的三个假设：（1）国会对政策变化的支持受公众的政策偏好和关注程度的影响最大;（2）当公众意见分歧很大或相对冷漠时，党派平衡很可能影响国会对政策提案的支持：随着公众对某个问题的关注和对某个特定政策提案的支持程度的提高，党派平衡的影响会降低;（3）当公众意见分歧很大或相对不关心时，利益集团和SMOs可能会影响国会对政策提案的支持;但随着公众对某个问题的关注和对某个建议的支持程度的提高，利益集团和SMOs的影响将减少。2假设将通过分析国会对二战以来考虑的政策提案样本的支持来检验。 支持将通过两种方式来衡量：从政策提案首次提出到颁布或离开国会议程的国会提案;以及国会审议提案的最终结果-无论是制定为法律，重新制定还是允许枯萎和死亡。为了验证假设，拟议的研究将收集和分析特定政策提案审议期间的民意和政治组织活动的数据。 有关民意和公众关注程度的数据将来自现有的民意调查。 关于中介组织活动的数据将来自国会听证会、大众媒体和其他公开文件。

Burstein, PaulSES-0001509Two related questions have long been central to scholarly and public debate about democratic government. First, is public policy in a democracy influence strongly by the public as a whole? Second, do the organizations created to influence policy in all democracies-political, interest groups, and social movement organizations (SMOs) -help the public influence policy, or do they enable particular groups to get the policies they want even if a majority of the public is opposed?The proponents of democratic theory contend that democratic governments respond to public opinion and that, on balance, political organizations have little direct influence on policy in the face of public opinion. Other theories, however, see public opinion as having little impact on policy, and propose that political organizations have strong, direct impacts on policy.The proposed research will test three hypotheses stemming from this controversy: (1) congressional support for policy change is affected most strongly by the public's policy preferences and its intensity of concern; (2) the party balance is likely to affect congressional support for policy proposals when the public is closely divided or relatively indifferent: as the public's concern about an issue and support for a particular policy proposal increase, the impact of the party balance will decrease; but the party balance is likely to have a greater effect than either interest groups or SMOs; and (3) interest groups and SMOs may affect congressional support for policy proposals when the public is closely divided or relatively indifferent; but as the public's concern about an issue and support for a particular proposal increase, the impact of interest groups and SMOs will decrease.The hypotheses will be tested through an analysis of congressional support for a sample of policy proposals considered since World War II. Support will be gauged in two ways: Congressional sponsorship of bills from the time policy proposals are first introduced until they are either enacted or leave the congressional agenda; and the ultimate outcome of congressional consideration of proposals-whether they were enacted into law, reframed, or allowed to languish and die. To test the hypotheses, the proposed research will collect and analyze data on public opinion and the activities of political organization for the periods during particular policy proposals are under consideration. Data on public opinion and the intensity of the public concern will come from available polls. Data on the activities of intermediary organizations will be drawn from congressional hearing, the mass media, and other publicly available documents.