Collaborative Research: Self-organized Criticality Blackouts and Disruptions in Power and Communications System

该合同是在运输工业工程探索性研究（ETI）项目招标下获得的。美国依赖于其电力和通信系统基础设施的平稳运行。为了尽量减少对这些复杂系统的干扰，有必要了解、预测和控制它们对外界扰动的反应。自组织临界性（SOC）的概念将非线性动力系统的自组织思想与许多自然现象经常观察到的近临界行为结合在一起。这项工作促进了对这些系统中自组织临界性的理解。工作的主要重点是电力系统停电，其次是通信系统的中断。对电力系统停电规模和互联网拥塞的时间序列的初步分析显示了长期相关性的证据，这与SOC行为一致。我们将扩大和深化这些对实验数据的初步分析。我们将开发和分析在电力系统和通信网络中捕获SOC效应的仿真模型。初步工作提出了电力系统停电中SOC的启发式解释。我们将通过分析模拟模型来测试和完善这个初步的启发式解释。我们将确定电力系统停电和通信系统网络在其全球复杂动态中显示SOC的程度。

This award is made under the Exploratory Research on Engineering the Transport Industries (ETI) program solicitation. The United States depends on the smooth functioning of its electrical power and communication systems infrastructure. To minimize disruptions to these complex systems, it is necessary to understand, predict and control their responses to outside perturbations. The concept of self- organized criticality (SOC) brings together ideas of self-organization of nonlinear dynamical systems with the often observed near critical behavior of many natural phenomena. This work advances the understanding of self-organized criticality in these systems. The primary focus of work is electric power system blackouts and the secondary focus is disruptions in communication systems.Initial analyses of time series of power system blackout sizes and internet congestion show evidence of long time correlations, which are consistent with SOC behavior. We will expand and deepen these initial analyses of experimental data. We will develop and analyze simulation models capturing SOC effects in electric power systems and communication networks. Initial work suggests a heuristic explanation of SOC in electric power system blackouts. We will test and refine this initial heuristic explanation by analyzing simulation models. We will determine the extent to which electric power system blackouts and communication system networks show SOC in their global complex dynamics.