US-India Cooperative Research: Diagnosis of India's Weather Prediction Model's Forecast and Simulation Deficiencies

美国马里兰大学皮萨曼特·尼加姆将与新德里国家中期天气预报中心(NCMRWF)的印度气象学家Shyam Singh、Sarat Kar和Gopal Iyengar合作。他们将利用观测到的下边界条件，通过对过去气候进行多年模拟，来测试印度数值天气预报模式的物理性能。对集合平均气候模拟的分析，特别是与相应时期观测的比较，将使人们能够确定该模型的物理缺陷。模式物理的改进将对气候模拟和NCMRWF开发的中短期天气预报产生有益的影响。研究范围：研究目标是诊断NCMRWF通过印度唯一可运行的数值天气预报模式产生的天气预报不足的原因。因此，这项研究的成功完成将有助于改进印度的天气预报，并更好地了解观察到的季节性到年际变化的模式，特别是在印度夏季风期间。世界各地的季风气象学家对这一课题有着极大的研究兴趣。除了促进NCMRWF参与国际大气模式比对项目(AMIP)的近期目标之外，这项研究还将有助于对模式的性能进行基准测试，促进对NCMRWF模式集成的额外分析，并通过借鉴国际气象界的经验来加快模式的开发。该奖项由国际项目部和大气科学部共同支持。

0212616Nigam Description: This award supports a US-India cooperative research project entitled Diagnosis of India's Weather Prediction Model's Forecast and Simulation Deficiencies.US PI Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland will collaborate with Indian meteorologists, Shyam Singh, Sarat Kar, and Gopal Iyengar of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), in New Delhi. They will test the physics of India's numerical weather prediction model by producing multi-year simulations of the past climate, using observed lower-boundary conditions. Analysis of the ensemble-mean climate simulation, particularly comparison with the corresponding period observations, will allow one to determine the deficiencies of the model's physics. Improvement in the model's physics will have a beneficial impact on climate simulation and on short-to-medium range weather forecasts developed by the NCMRWF. Scope: The research goal is to diagnose the reasons for deficient weather forecasts produced at the NCMRWF by India's only operational numerical weather prediction model. Consequently, successful completion of the research will lead to improved weather forecasts in India and better understanding of the observed modes of recurrent seasonal-to-interannual variability, particularly during the Indian summer monsoon. There is immense research interest in this topic among monsoon meteorologists worldwide. Beyond the immediate objective of facilitating NCMRWF's participation in the international Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), this research will help benchmark the model's performance, foster additional analysis of the NCMRWF model integration's, and accelerate model development by drawing on the experience of the international meteorological community. This award is jointly supported by the Division of International Programs and the Division of Atmospheric Sciences.