CMG Research: Emerging Mathematical Strategies for Stochastic Modeling and Predictability to Climate Variability

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

The climate system involves a huge range of interacting spatial andtemporal scales. Development of tools to further understanding of thisvery complex system and its predictability is the major focus of thisproject. Theoretically rigorous methods allowing for the stochasticmodeling of the system have been demonstrated by the investigators insimple dynamical systems. We extend these to the more complex butpractical systems underlying climate. Additionally an entirely newperspective on dynamical predictability has been derived by theinvestigators using information theory. This will be applied to theproblems of atmospheric and climate prediction and will also enable thedevelopment of rigorous reliability measures for dynamical predictionsin general chaotic systems.These investigations enable us to gain a much clearer understandingof the complex system underlying the Earth's climate. Such anunderstanding will be of great benefit in interpreting results fromsocietally important projections of future climate change. Further weanticipate the development of tools which will enable us to reliablydecide when a particular prediction (climate or weather) is likely to beuseful and when it is not likely to have any use. This ability has important practical implications for policy makers dealing with fundamentally uncertain systems.