Viral Transmission Dynamics in the Serengeti

在新出现的传染病中，人畜共患病和通用性病毒病原体对公众健康和生物多样性构成特别威胁。对这些疾病的有效控制既需要确定感染宿主，也需要了解复杂宿主组合内的病毒传播动力学。然而，对于大多数新出现的传染病来说，宿主仍有待确定，对感染的维持机制知之甚少。这项研究将提出一个理论和实践框架，用于识别坦桑尼亚塞伦盖蒂地区的病毒感染宿主。最近在这一领域出现的病毒性疾病为在一个多样化、研究充分和重要的生态系统内比较研究人畜共患病原体和通用性病原体提供了机会。此外，该地区被迅速扩大的人类和家畜种群包围，这对传染病的传播动态产生了深远的影响。这项研究将调查狂犬病、甘蔗瘟热病毒(CDV)和犬细小病毒(CPV)这三种病毒病原体的传播动态，通过干预试验、遗传分析和疾病监测等多种方法相结合的方法来确定感染库。有关宿主空间分布和接触率的经验数据将被整合到物种间和物种内传播的数学模型中。这些模型将被用来(A)研究病毒感染在多种群系统中维持的机制；(B)根据人类活动和气候模式的变化预测未来对疾病管理的需求；(C)设计具有成本效益的方案，以控制人类和动物种群中的疾病。

Of the emerging infectious diseases, zoonotic and generalist viral pathogens pose a particular threat to public health and biodiversity. The effective control of these diseases requires both the identification of reservoires of infection and an understanding of viral transmission dynamics within complex host assemblages. Yet for most emerging infectious diseases, reservoirs remain to be identified and little is known about mechanisms by which infections are maintained. This study will propose a theoretical and practical framework for recognizing reservoirs in the field, which will be applied to identify reservoirs of viral infections in the Serengeti, Tanzania. The recent emergence of viral diseases in this area provides the opportunity for a comparative study of zoonotic and generalist pathogens within a diverse, well-studied and important ecosystem. Furthermore, the area is surrounded by rapidly expanding human and domestic animal populations which have profound impacts on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. This study will investigate the transmission dynamics of three viral pathogens, rabies, cane distemper virus (CDV), and canine parvovirus (CPV), identifying reservoirs of infection through a combination of approaches that include intervention trials, genetic analyses and disease surveillance. Empirical data on the spatial distribution of hosts and contact rated will be integrated into mathematical models of transmission between and within species. These models will be used to (a) investigate mechanisms by which viral infections are maintained in multi-population systems; (b) anticipate future requirements for disease management in relation to changes in human activity and climate patterns; (c) design cost-effective programs for the control of disease in human and animal populations.