Input-Output Risk Model of Critical Infrastructure Systems

摘要-提高对短时间天气事件的认识气象和水文科学在为短时间天气事件提供更长的交货期、更好的长期模型和综合实时监测方面取得了巨大的进步。与此同时，缺乏将新知识转化为对突发天气事件的更好反应所需的社会科学研究，该项目挑战了公众对山洪暴发和龙卷风警报的当前看法。地理学家和心理学家团队将与德克萨斯州奥斯汀和科罗拉多州丹佛这两个案例研究城市的预报员和应急管理人员密切合作：这两个城市具有高增长率、高度多样性和重大灾难潜力。我们有五个目标：1）通过研究公共和私人的警报信息来源，提高对警报的理解; 2）了解美国人口变化如何影响公众对警报的反应; 3）评估新技术在警报感知和反应方面的使用和潜力; 4）评估短时间天气事件的“假警报”的结构;以及，5）评估社会认知理论作为理解人们对警告反应差异的框架的适用性。这项研究的结果将对未来的预警程序产生广泛的影响，为地方和州应急管理人员以及参与预警的联邦机构（包括国家气象局、垦务局、FEMA和美国陆军工程兵团）提供新的方向。

Abstract - Toward Improved Understanding of Warnings for Short-Fuse Weather EventsThe meteorological and hydrological sciences have shown dramatic improvements in offering increased lead-times, better long-term models and integrated real-time monitoring for short fuse weather events. At the same time the social science research necessary to translate the new knowledge into improved responses to short-fuse weather events is missing.This project challenges the current state of public perceptions of warnings for flash floods and tornadoes. A team of geographers and psychologists will work closely with forecasters and emergency managers in the two case study cities of Austin, TX and Denver, CO: cities with high growth rates, great diversity, and significant disaster potential. We have five objectives: 1) to develop an enhanced understanding of warnings by studying public and private sources of warning information; 2) to see how changing demography of the US influences public responses to warnings; 3) to evaluate the use and potential of new technologies for warning perceptions and responses; 4) to assess the construct of "false alarms" for short-fuse weather events; and, 5) to evaluate the applicability of social cognitive theory as a framework to understand the differences between how people respond to warnings. Results from this research will have broad implications for future warning procedures providing new directions for local and state emergency managers and for the federal agencies involved in warnings including the National Weather Service, the Bureau of Reclamation, FEMA, and the US Army Corps of Engineers.