A 45-Y Hindcast of Antarctic Surface Mass Balance Using Polar MM5

该奖项支持对南极冰盖表面物质平衡的空间和时间特征以及影响其的管理机制进行全面调查。适应南极条件的中尺度大气模式(Polar MM5)将与欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)最新提供的再分析相结合，以3小时的时间分辨率和60公里的空间分辨率计算1957年至2001年期间南极洲的地表物质平衡。极地MM5将升级以考虑模拟中的关键过程，包括明确考虑吹雪的输送和升华以及表面融化/径流。以前从未尝试过使用有限区域模式对南极表面物质平衡的所有组成部分进行45年后播，这将提供一个规模空前的数据集，以补充现有的近期气候冰芯测量结果，特别是国际横贯北极科学考察队收集的数据。4.5年的时空趋势和变化将得到解决，大气变化的主要模式(南极振荡、厄尔尼诺-南方振荡等)的影响将得到解决。将会被隔离。关于南极表面物质平衡对气候变化的反应的假设将得到检验。这项研究将为评估未来气候变化对南极表面物质平衡的影响及其对全球海平面变化的贡献提供良好的基础，并为解释南极冰芯记录提供重要的视角。更广泛的影响包括对博士生的教育，开发用于大学课堂的材料，以及建立一个关于南极表面物质平衡的互动教育网页。

This award supports a comprehensive investigation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and the governing mechanisms that affect it. A mesoscale atmospheric model, adapted for Antarctic conditions (Polar MM5), will be used in conjunction with the newly available reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to resolve the surface mass balance of Antarctica at a time resolution of 3 hours and a spatial resolution of 60 km from 1957 to 2001. Polar MM5 will be upgraded to account for key processes in the simulation, including explicit consideration of blowing snow transport and sublimation as well as surface melting/runoff. The proposed 45-y hindcast of all Antarctic surface mass balance components with a limited area model has not previously been attempted and will provide a dataset of unprecedented scope to complement existing ice core measurements of recent climate, especially those collected by the International Transantarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE). The trends and variability in space and time over 4.5 decades will be resolved and the impact of the dominant modes of atmospheric variability (Antarctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, etc.) will be isolated. Hypotheses concerning the Antarctic surface mass balance response to climate change will be tested. The research will provide a sound basis for evaluating the impact of future climate change on Antarctic surface mass balance and its contribution to global sea level change as well as providing an important perspective for the interpretation of Antarctic ice core records. The broader impacts include the education of a Ph.D. student, the development of material for use in university classes, and construction of an interactive educational webpage on Antarctic surface mass balance.