Validation of a Numerical Granular Flow Simulation Model for Pyroclastic Flows and Debris Avalanches

火山碎屑流和火山碎屑雪崩是最危险的火山事件之一，在20世纪造成了数万人死亡。然而，可靠的危险评估很难完成，改进的建模是改进评估的主要关键。这项研究将测试最近开发的非常强大的流动模型代码(TITAN2D)，并将其输出与独特的现场数据(来自具有非常高质量数据的精选地点)进行比较。这项研究的学术价值在于增加了我们对危险现象物理学的理解，并通过其验证、校准和代码改进来帮助TITAN2D的使用。验证是确定模型在多大程度上是真实世界的准确表示的过程。它的重点是物理问题，即为手头的问题求解正确的方程。通过验证，预计该模型可以以一种相当可靠的方式用于调查水流过程，帮助进行危险和风险评估，绘制危险和风险地图，并为减灾做出贡献。用于验证工作的信息包括关于30个大到主要的穹顶坍塌和斜坡破坏的非常详细的数据。更广泛的影响包括通过改进对危险过程的了解、改进危害评估和风险沟通以及在火山和斜坡不稳定危机中更有效地进行分区而带来的社会效益。这项研究应该通过与纽约州立大学的科学家合作，贡献数据并促进计算机代码的增强，从而使该方法在应用中总体上更加有效和可靠。研究成果将频繁和互动地传达给代码开发人员，并在会议和研讨会、出版物和网络上及时传播。

Pyroclastic flows and volcanic debris avalanches are among the most hazardous volcanic events and have been responsible for tens of thousands of deaths in the 20th century. However, reliable hazards assessments are difficult to accomplish and improved modeling is a major key to improved assessments. This research will test a recently developed, very powerful, flow model code (TITAN2D) and compare its output to a unique body of field data (from select sites with very high quality data). The intellectual merit of this research is to increase our understanding of the physics of hazardous phenomena, and to aid the use of TITAN2D via its validation, calibration, and code improvements. Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world. Its focus is on physics issues, on solving the right equations for the problem at hand. With validation it is anticipated that this model could be used in a reasonably reliable way to investigate flow processes, to aid hazards and risk assessments, make hazards and risk maps, and contribute to hazards mitigation. The information intended for validation exercises include remarkably detailed data on 30 large to major dome collapses and slope failures. Broader impacts include societal benefits through improved understanding of hazardous processes, improved hazards assessments and risk communication, and more effective zoning in volcanic and slope instability crises. This research should contribute data and foster computer code enhancements by collaborating SUNY scientists that will make the method generally more effective and reliable for applications. Research results will be communicated frequently and interactively to code developers, and disseminated in timely fashion at meetings and workshops, by publications, and through the web.