BE MUSES: A Multiscale Bayesian Framework for the Life Cycle Inventory of Industrial Materials - The Case of Transportation Fuels

MUSE：工业材料生命周期清单的多尺度统计框架--以运输燃料为例这一生物复杂性：MUSE研究和教育计划旨在利用多尺度贝叶斯方法的最新进展，开发一种系统的方法，用于整合材料生命周期的设备、工艺生命周期和经济规模分析。在评估材料使用的经济、环境和社会方面，跨学科和综合建模很有吸引力。然而，以往的努力表明，由于规模和不确定性的巨大差异，在开发有用的模型方面面临着巨大的挑战。经济模型处于相对粗略的规模，流程生命周期评估处于中等规模，而工程模型处于较精细的规模。所提出的工作将把生命周期评价视为一个多尺度统计数据融合问题，其中数据和模型具有不同程度的空间聚集。由此产生的多尺度模型将有助于研究经济政策在更精细尺度上的影响。这一探索性项目将侧重于开发统计框架，完成说明性实例，并启动汽油多尺度生命周期模型。来自环境经济学的技术将量化材料使用生命周期中的外部性，并将用于制定政策替代方案。此外，拟议的教育活动将使人们深入了解人类对环境问题的反应。这将被用来设计有效的教学方法和有意义的社会经济政策，使其成为一个完全综合的多学科项目。这项工作涉及化学工程、自然资源、环境经济学和统计学之间的合作。还与巴西的研究人员和工业伙伴建立了合作。题为“不确定性下的复原力：技术、经济、生态和社会系统”的研讨会将使这一新兴领域的多学科领导人和研究人员汇聚一堂。该项目将由ECS和DMII共同管理。

MUSES: A Multiscale Statistical Framework for the Life Cycle Inventory of Industrial Materials - The Case of Transportation FuelsThis Biocomplexity: MUSES research and education plan aims to utilize the latest advances in multiscale Bayesian methods to develop a systematic method for integrating the equipment, process life cycle, and economy scale analysis of a material's life cycle. Cross-disciplinary and integrated modeling is appealing for evaluating the economic, environmental and social aspects of materials use. However, previous efforts indicate the formidable challenges in developing useful models due to the vastly different scales and uncertainty. Economic models are at a relatively coarse scale, process life cycle assessment is done at an intermediate scale, while engineering models are at a finer scale. The proposed work will treat LCA as a multiscale statistical data fusion problem, where data and models are available with different degrees of spatial aggregation. The resulting multiscale model will be useful for studying the impact of economic policies on finer scales. This exploratory project will focus on developing the statistical framework, completing illustrative examples and initiating the multiscale life cycle model for gasoline. Techniques from environmental economics will quantify the externalities during the life cycle of materials use, and will be used to formulate policy alternatives. Furthermore, the proposed educational activities will provide insight into the human response to environmental problems. This will be used to devise effective teaching methods and meaningful socio-economic policies, making this a fully integrated multidisciplinary project. This work involves collaboration between chemical engineering, natural resources, environmental economics and statistics. Collaboration with researchers in Brazil and industrial partners has also been established.A workshop on "Resilience Under Uncertainty: Technological, Economic, Ecological and Social Systems" will bring together multidisciplinary leaders and researchers in this emerging field. This project will be co-managed by ECS and DMII.