Collaborative Research: Global Aspects of Tropical Cyclogenesis

大部分关于热带气旋成因的研究都集中在当地的问题上，即是什么原因导致一个特定的扰动发展成热带气旋。研究所将侧重于全球问题，即大尺度气候变量与全球或区域热带活动措施之间的关系。PI将试图了解并最终预测热带气旋生成频率随气候变化的变化，例如在冰河时代模拟或气候变化情景中。以大气不稳定度为指标，研究员将探索数值模式中的参数空间，以找到热带风暴发展的分叉点。这项研究对热带气旋的更广泛影响体现在它们与天气和气候的关系上，并延伸到对人类和农业的影响。该项目将涉及一名研究生和一名博士后助理的参与。

Most of the work on tropical cyclone genesis has focussed on the local problem, i.e. what causes a particular disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone. The PIs will focus instead on the global problem which is concerned with the relationship between large-scale climate variables and measures of global or regional tropical activity. The PIs will seek to understand and eventually predict the variations in tropical cyclone genesis frequency as the climate changes, such as in ice age simulations or climate change scenarios. Using atmospheric instability as an index, the PIs will explore the parameter space in a numerical model in order to find a bifurcation point for tropical storm development. The broader impacts of this research on tropical cyclones are found in their relation to weather and climate, and by extension to people and agriculture. The project will involve the participation of a graduate student and a post-doctoral associate.