Dynamics of Low Frequency Phenomena

背景：热带气候预报中的一些主要问题是：(1)如何确定造成季风季内变率的过程；(2)为什么数值模式在模拟和预报季内变率方面做得不好；(3)如何对数值模式进行经验调整以改进预报；(4)我们是否已经进入了一个可能与全球变暖和气候变化有关的新的气候机制。为了解决这些研究问题，将对季节内、年际和年代际变化进行几项诊断、理论和模拟研究。智力价值：PI将：(1)调查热带的大尺度环流和热力学方面，(2)研究热带季节内变化的预测及其年际变化，以及(3)研究热带长期关系的变化。更广泛的影响：热带气候变化对大多数人的生活和福祉有深远的影响。这项研究的结果将有助于进一步了解热带地区的大尺度和低频现象，并将改善气候预测。将培训两名研究生和两名研究生。

Background: Some of the major issues in tropical climate prediction are: (1) how to determine the processes that create monsoon intraseasonal variability, (2) why numerical models do not do well in simulating and predicting intraseasonal variability, (3) how to implement empirical adjustments to numerical models to improve forecasts, and (4) whether or not we have entered into a new climate regime, possibly related to global warming and climate change. To address these research questions several diagnostic, theoretical, and modeling studies of intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal variability will be performed.Intellectual Merit: The PI will: (1) investigate the large-scale circulation and thermodynamic aspects of the tropics, (2) study the prediction of tropical intraseasonal variability and its interannual variability, and (3) study the variability of long-term relationships in the tropics.Broader Impacts: Tropical climate variability has a profound impact on the lives and well being of the majority of the population. The outcome from the research will lead to further understanding of large scale and low frequency phenomena in the tropics and will improve climate prediction. Two postgraduate and two graduate students will be trained.