SHINE: Understanding the Magnetic Origins of Coronal Mass Ejections and Forecasting Their Occurrence from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

提议者计划通过比较活动区日冕物质抛射（CME）的生产力与活动区磁性条件的定量测量来研究日冕物质抛射（CME）的磁性起源。他希望作为副产品，建立一个预测地球定向日冕物质抛射的基础。主要研究员（PI）打算分析太阳和日光层观测站-迈克尔逊多普勒成像仪（SOHO/MDI）的视线磁图，以获得太阳磁场和磁通量的非潜在性的整个活动区域测量值，以及这些量的变化率。然后，他将通过对这些参数与活跃地区CME生产力的相关性进行统计评估，评估这些参数在导致CME爆发方面的相对重要性。拟议的项目建立在以前的NSF奖项和PI正在进行的太阳矢量磁图分析的最新结果的基础上。PI已经从视线磁图中获得了活动区非电势的可靠测量，而不使用矢量磁图。这鼓励PI使用空间MDI视线磁图的上级连续性，节奏和均匀性来跟踪太阳活动区非潜力和磁通量含量的演变，并检查这些量的演变在CME起源中的重要性。这项工作还包括培训太阳物理学研究生研究助理。PI希望该项目能够更好地对向地球的CME和潜在的不利空间天气事件进行业务预报。

The proposer plans to investigate the magnetic origins of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by comparing active-region CME productivity with quantitative measures of active-region magnetic conditions. He expects to establish, as a by-product, a basis for forecasting Earthward-directed CMEs. The Principal Investigator (PI) intends to analyze Solar and Heliospheric Observatory-Michelson Doppler Imager (SOHO/MDI) line-of-sight magnetograms to obtain whole-active-region measures of the nonpotentiality of the solar magnetic field and the magnetic flux, as well as the rates of change of these quantities. He will then assess the relative importance of these parameters in causing CME eruptions by performing a statistical evaluation of the correlation of these parameters with the CME productivity of active regions. The proposed project builds on recent results from previous NSF awards and from the PI's ongoing analysis of solar vector magnetograms. The PI has obtained reliable measures of active-region nonpotentiality from line-of-sight magnetograms, without using vector magnetograms. This encouraged the PI to use the superior continuity, cadence, and uniformity of space-based MDI line-of-sight magnetograms to track the evolution of solar active-region nonpotentiality and magnetic flux content, and to examine the importance of the evolution of these quantities in the origin of CMEs. This effort also includes the training of graduate student research assistants in solar physics. The PI expects this project to lead to better operational forecasting of Earthward CMEs and of potentially adverse space weather events.