Equipment Replacement Under Continuous and Discontinuous Technological Change

该补助金为研究设备更换问题的建模和解决方案提供资金，这些问题包括连续和不连续的技术变革。 持续的技术变革是指随着时间的推移，可供替换的资产逐渐得到改进。 这些通常与制造商定期发布新型号相吻合，这些型号比以前的型号更有效。 不连续的技术变革指的是技术上的突破，与以前的模式相比，往往伴随着生产力的跃升。 我们假设突破定义了一个新的资产年份，在同一年份的后续模型版本中逐渐改进。 在这两种情况下，这项技术的经济影响可能在它到来之前无法得知。 随机动态规划提出了解决这个问题的各种情况下的技术，资本预算的限制，和多个供应商。 由于系统的状态空间很大，将使用近似技术来解决更长时间的问题，确保（接近）最佳的时间零点决策。这项工作的预期好处在于能够为技术资产的消费者（如医院）确定最佳或接近最佳的政策。 为了验证这些见解，利哈伊谷医院提供了超过24，000件医疗设备的数据。 这些信息将有助于应用所开发的模型，此外，这项工作的扩展将更密切地研究如何影响消费者对技术变革的选择。 例如，制造商可能会提供维修合同或专门的保证，以吸引购买，同时分担使用新技术的风险。 此外，政府可能会提供激励措施，鼓励制造商以更大的投资采用更新的技术，这些政策可以通过分析不同条件下的最优替代政策来检验。 这些分析的好处将是设计促进资本投资和技术创新的方法（政策和合同）。

This grant provides funding for research into the modeling and solution of equipment replacement problems that incorporate both continuous and discontinuous technological change. Continuous technological change refers to the gradual improvement in assets available over time for replacement. These generally coincide with the manufacturer periodically releasing new models, which are more efficient than previous models. Discontinuous technological change refers to breakthroughs in technology, often accompanied by jumps in productivity when compared to previous models. We assume breakthroughs define a new vintage of asset that gradually improves in subsequent model releases of the same vintage. In either case, the economic impact of the technology may not be known until it arrives. Stochastic dynamic programming is proposed to solve this problem under various scenarios of technological, capital budgeting constraints, and multiple suppliers. Due to the large state space of the system, approximation techniques will be used to allow for the solution of longer horizon problems, ensuring (near) optimal time zero decisions. The expected benefits of this work lie in the ability to determine optimal or near optimal policies for consumers of technological assets, such as hospitals. To verify these insights, Lehigh Valley Hospital has offered data on over 24,000 pieces of medical equipment. This information will allow for the application of the developed models.Furthermore, extensions of this work will more closely examine how to influence consumers' choices concerning technological change. For example, manufacturers may offer maintenance contracts or pecialized warranties in order to entice purchases while sharing the risk of using newer technologies. Furthermore, governments may offer incentives for manufacturers to adopt newer technologies with greater investment.These policies can be examined by analyzing the optimal replacement policies under differing conditions. The benefits of these analyses will be in designing methods (policies and contracts) that foster capital investment and technological innovation.