Cyber Systems: Collaborative Research: Complex Systems Dynamics of Blackouts and Transmission Upgrades

NSF提案0605848和0606003本研究的目的是了解国家高压输电网的发展如何影响停电的风险。电网的发展是通过工程升级，如新的输电线路或运营政策。升级是为了在控制成本的同时避免停电和增加用电量。这些力量驱动着被认为强烈影响停电风险的复杂动态。该方法是在不同的细节水平上建立这些复杂动态的模型，以研究电网升级中的不同选择如何影响停电风险。智力上的优点是，电网是非常庞大和复杂的工程系统，了解这些网络如何演变是一项科学挑战，涉及工程学、概率论、统计物理学和计算机模拟的结合。这项研究将促进对支撑我们社会的电网背景下复杂工程系统的基本理解。更广泛的影响是，该项目的预期结果是更好地对主要停电进行风险分析，并确定哪些升级或运营政策可以最好地管理停电风险。该研究还将开始研究网络基础设施之间相互作用的理论，例如，当停电与通信中断相互作用时。这项研究将有助于教育跨学科的学生，包括一些代表性不足的群体，研究结果将传达给一系列工程、科学和普通受众。

NSF proposals 0605848 and 0606003The objective of this research is to understand how the risk of blackouts is affected by the evolution of the nations high voltage electrical power transmission grid. The electrical grid evolves by means of engineering upgrades such as new transmission lines or operational policies. The upgrades are done in response to avoiding blackouts and to increasing electricity usage while containing costs. These forces drive complex dynamics that are thought to strongly influence blackout risk. The approach is to develop models of these complex dynamics at various levels of detail in order to investigate how different choices in the upgrade of the grid can affect blackout risk.The intellectual merit is that power grids are very large and complicated engineered systems and understanding how these networks evolve is a scientific challenge involving a combination of engineering, probability, statistical physics and computer simulation. The research will advance the basic understanding of complex engineered systems in the context of the electrical grid that underpins our society. The broader impact is that the expected outcome of the project is better risk analysis of major blackouts and the potential of determining which upgrades or operational policies can best manage the risk of blackouts. The research will also start to examine the theory of interactions between networked infrastructures, as, for example, when power blackouts interact with interruptions to communications. The research will help to educate interdisciplinary students, including some underrepresented groups, and the results will be communicated to a range of engineering, scientific and general audiences.