Integrating Household Decision-Making and Transportation Simulation under No-Notice Evacuation Conditions

这笔赠款资助开发一种方法，通过明确整合家庭互动和交通建模和模拟的特点，更准确地预测无通知事件的疏散时间。 将通过深入的个人访谈收集有关家庭决策的原始数据，这些访谈将揭示家庭疏散规划、决策过程、家庭优化其计划的程度、其交通需求、对通信技术的依赖以及对学校疏散儿童的依赖。 对学校的额外采访将确定他们的疏散计划和与家长的协调。 这些数据将为无通知疏散中家庭成员互动和决策的新行为模型提供信息。这些新模型将与交通模拟相结合，以研究对交通和疏散时间的影响。 最后，利用交通信息，将为学校和其他实体开发一个原始的数学程序和解决方法，为他们照顾的人选择最佳的搬迁地点，以方便家庭成员收集。 这些模型将在三个危险物质事故中进行测试，并在有和没有家庭疏散的情况下对家庭疏散和工作场所疏散进行评估。这项研究整合了疏散的社会和交通工程方面，形成了一个整体视图，并为新模型奠定了基础，这些模型可以捕捉以前被忽视的复杂旅行模式，并更准确地预测疏散时间。 这项研究确定并解决了人们没有汽车的需求，产生了更好的理解如何家庭互动和性别角色在疏散决策中发挥作用，以及家庭如何看待他们的紧急模式和路线选择，并促进学校和家长之间的对话，在疏散期间收集儿童。重新安置儿童或其他受抚养群体的最佳方法有助于他们的收集和加速疏散。通过从家庭和交通网络两个层面解决疏散问题，该项目揭示了准确回答宏观层面问题所需的微观细节。

This grant funds the development of an approach that more accurately predicts evacuation time for no-notice events by explicitly integrating household interactions and characteristics with transportation modeling and simulation. Original data on household decision-making will be gathered through in-depth personal interviews, which will reveal household evacuation planning, decision-making processes, the degree to which households optimize their plans, and their transportation needs, reliance on communications technology, and dependence on schools to evacuate children. Additional interviews with schools will identify their evacuation plans and coordination with parents. The data will inform new behavior models of household member interactions and decision-making in a no-notice evacuation. These new models will then be integrated with transportation simulation to examine effects on traffic and evacuation times. Finally, using the traffic information, an original mathematical program and solution methodology will be developed for schools and other entities to select optimal relocation sites for people within their care that facilitate collection by family members. The models will be tested for three hazardous materials incidents and evaluated for home evacuation and workplace evacuation with and without home clearance.This research integrates social and transportation engineering aspects of evacuation to form a holistic view and lays the groundwork for new models that capture previously overlooked complex travel patterns and more accurately predict evacuation times. This study identifies and addresses the needs of people without cars, generates a greater understanding of how household interactions and gender roles play a role in evacuation decision-making and how households view their emergency mode and route choices, and promotes dialogue between schools and parents for the collection of children during an evacuation. The optimization methodology for relocating children or other dependent groups facilitates their collection and expedites the evacuation. By addressing evacuation from both the household and transportation network levels, this project reveals the microscopic details needed to accurately answer questions at the macroscopic level.