Modeling farm level structural change in a dynamic competitive environment

农业结构被认为是农业竞争力的一个重要因素。因此，一方面，农业经济学家长期以来一直关注对农业结构变化的描述、分析和建模。另一方面，在政治上高度关注农业生产的竞争力和农场的收入状况；然而，为了充分预测总体农业结构变化，特别是分析不同政治方案的影响，有必要对农场一级的结构变化，即农民的投资和撤资决策有一个基本的了解。在这个子项目中，我们开发了一个模型，其中可以考虑到许多决策情况下固有的不确定性、动态性和不可逆性，以及决策者的有限理性。另一个重要问题涉及竞争，即不同代理人之间的互动。该模型将使用第一个项目阶段的结果进行开发。最后，这些结果可能是一项重要的前期工作，有助于改进对不同政治计划的影响的评估。除了这一分项目的方法目标外，改进的投资和撤资模型将示范应用于竞争强度较高(并进一步增加)的乳制品行业。

Agrarian structures are considered to be an important factor for the competitiveness of farming. Therefore, on the one hand, agricultural economists have been concerned for a long time with describing, analyzing and modeling structural change in agriculture. On the other hand, high political attention is devoted to the competitiveness of agricultural production and the income situation of farms; however, to adequately forecast structural change in agriculture in general and to analyze the effects of different political schemes in particular, a fundamental understanding of farm-level structural change, i.e., investment and disinvestment decisions of farmers, is necessary. In this subproject we develop a model in which uncertainty, dynamics and irreversibility inherent in many decision-making situations, together with the bounded rationality of decision-makers, can be taken into account. Another important issue deals with competition, i.e., interactions between different agents. The model will be developed using results from the first project phase. Finally, the results could be an important preliminary work for an improved assessment of the effects of different political schemes. Besides the methodical objective of this subproject, the improved investment and disinvestment model will be applied exemplarily to the dairy sector which shows a high (and further increasing) intensity of competition.