Multi-Scale Observational Analyses within the "Marsupial Pouch" of Pre-Depression Tropical Disturbances

热带气旋生成的预测和认识是大气科学中最具挑战性的问题之一。 每年都会有大量热带扰动从佛得角群岛附近的西非海岸出现，但只有少数发展成热带低气压、风暴或飓风。为了进一步了解这些潜在的高影响事件，热带地区云系统的预低气压调查（PREDICT）现场实验将在大西洋盆地部署NSF G-V飞机，以探索可能促进或阻碍热带低气压涡旋发展的多尺度相互作用。 预测小组将与同时进行的美国航天局和诺阿项目协调研究工作。 研究将侧重于综合、分析和解释G-V、NOAA和NASA飞机获得的观测数据集。对流层下投式探空仪观测、雷达数据和多个飞行高度的现场数据将为研究热带气旋前兆的发展和增长提供独特的数据集。 通过结合来自多个仪器和平台的数据，涡度、散度、湿度和位涡的中尺度和天气尺度合成物将用于诊断大西洋扰动的结构和演变。 数据集的多尺度分析将通过使用客观和变分技术来完成，这些技术允许对与主要假设相关的关键量的结构和预算进行定量研究。 到目前为止，在大多数预低气压扰动中，温度和湿度的多维合成物是有限的或不存在的，但G-V飞机提供了一个理想的平台，可以获得构建这些合成物所需的测量。下投式探空仪和微波温度剖面仪获得的高分辨率垂直结构补充了湾流飞机现场数据的重要水平覆盖范围，从而提供了独特的合成机会。来自G-V和NOAA飞机的云和降水雷达数据将为调查波到涡旋的转变过程提供前所未有的机会。研究小组还将把这些结果与不同地区其他飓风的数据进行比较和对比。 智力优势：最近的理论，后勤和技术进步允许测试新的动力学/物理学假设的作用，热带气旋发展中的热带波，中尺度和对流过程。更广泛的影响：该研究将与其他主要研究人员和学生密切合作，以获得观测分析，理论理解，数值建模和预测之间的最大协同作用。这项研究的成功完成可能会改善热带气旋的预报。

The prediction and understanding of tropical cyclogenesis remains one of the most challenging problems in the atmospheric sciences. A multitude of tropical disturbances emerge from the West African coast every year near the Cape Verde islands, but only a few of these develop into tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes. To further understanding of these potentially high impact events, the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field experiment will deploy the NSF G-V aircraft in the Atlantic basin to explore multi-scale interactions that may promote or hinder the development of a tropical depression vortex. The PREDICT team will coordinate research with concurrent NASA and NOAA projects. Research will focus on the synthesis, analysis and interpretation of the observational datasets obtained by the G-V, NOAA and NASA aircraft. Tropospheric dropwindsonde observations, radar data, and in situ data at multiple flight levels will offer a unique dataset for examining the development and growth of tropical cyclone precursors. By combining data from multiple instruments and platforms, mesoscale and synoptic scale composites of vorticity, divergence, moisture, and potential vorticity will be used to diagnose the structure and evolution of disturbances in the Atlantic. Multiscale analyses of the datasets will be accomplished through the use of objective and variational techniques that allow for quantitative study of the structures and budgets of key quantities related to the primary hypotheses. Multidimensional composites of temperature and humidity have so far been limited or non-existent in most pre-depression disturbances, but the G-V aircraft provides an ideal platform for obtaining the measurements needed to construct these syntheses. The high-resolution vertical structure obtained from dropsondes and the microwave temperature profiler complements the significant horizontal coverage of in situ data from the Gulfstream aircraft, allowing for unique compositing opportunities. The cloud and precipitation radar data from the G-V and NOAA aircraft will provide unprecedented opportunities for investigations into the wave-to-vortex transformation process. The research team will also compare and contrast these results with data obtained from other hurricanes in different locales. Intellectual Merit: Recent theoretical, logistical, and technological advancements allow for testing new dynamical/thermodynamical hypotheses on the role of tropical waves, mesoscale and convective processes in tropical cyclone development. Broader Impacts: The research will be in close collaboration with other principal investigators and students in order to obtain the maximum synergy between the observational analyses, theoretical understanding, and numerical modeling and prediction. Successful completion of this research could result in improved forecasts of tropical cyclones.