CAREER: Impacts of Convective and Stratiform Processes on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

职业：对流和层状过程对热带气旋强度变化的影响

• 批准号: 1701225
• 负责人: Michael Bell
• 金额: $ 48万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-08-15 至 2020-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1701225&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Impacts; Convective; Stratiform; Processes

This study will investigate the impacts of convective and stratiform processes on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change through analysis of mesoscale observations, with a focus on aircraft and Doppler radar data. Our ability to skillfully predict changes in TC intensity is still limited, but recent studies have suggested that the radial location of deep convective bursts and stratiform precipitation relative to the radius of maximum wind (RMW) may play an important role in intensification efficiency. Testing these new hypotheses using mesoscale observations is needed to diagnose the most important physical processes responsible for intensity change and improve TC intensity forecasts.Intellectual Merit:Analysis of Doppler radar, dropsonde, satellite, and other observations will be used to examine TC convective and stratiform structures, their thermodynamic and dynamic environment, and their impacts on the TC circulation. Previous theoretical and numerical studies have suggested that convective heating and associated low-level convergence inside the RMW can efficiently intensify the maximum winds. Outside the RMW, mid-level inflow associated with stratiform precipitation can efficiently spin-up the broader circulation through convergence of absolute angular momentum above the frictional boundary layer. The research will use existing research observations at different stages of the TC lifecycle from intensifying and non-intensifying storms to test these hypotheses. A new variational analysis technique called SAMURAI developed by the Principal Investigator will be used to integrate aircraft and radar observations into three-dimensional thermodynamic and kinematic fields for analysis. High-resolution Cartesian and low-wavenumber cylindrical analyses with improved radar thermodynamic retrievals will be conducted and augmented with numerical simulations to improve our understanding of TC intensification.Broader Impacts:This study integrates research and education by developing a new graduate radar meteorology course with a digital, interactive textbook, and incorporating mesoscale TC observations into physical meteorology curricula to train and encourage students to test scientific hypotheses using field observations. The open source SAMURAI analysis software and material from the digital radar meteorology textbook will be available to the atmospheric science community to enhance research and education infrastructure. The University of Hawaii at Manoa represents a demographically and geographically unique state in an EPSCoR jurisdiction, and the Principal Investigator is committed to improving diversity by including women and underrepresented minorities such as Pacific Islanders and Native Hawaiians in the project. Improvements in our understanding of TC intensity change can have a significant positive impact on society. The application of the findings from continued research on hurricanes and typhoons can ultimately help to improve our forecast ability and reduce life and property loss throughout the globe.

这项研究将通过分析中尺度观测值来研究对流和层状过程对热带气旋强度变化的影响，重点是飞机和多普勒雷达数据。我们巧妙地预测TC强度变化的能力仍然有限，但是最近的研究表明，相对于最大风（RMW）的半径，深对流爆发和层状降水的径向位置可能在强化效率中起重要作用。需要使用中尺度观察来测试这些新的假设，以诊断负责强度变化的最重要的物理过程并改善了TC强度的预测。智能优点：多普勒雷达，滴虫，卫星，卫星和其他观察结果将用于检查TC对流和地层结构，并在其热动力和动力环境中效应。以前的理论和数值研究表明，对流加热和相关的RMW内部相关的低水平收敛可以有效增强最大风。在RMW之外，与层状沉淀相关的中级流入可以通过在摩擦边界层上方的绝对角动量收敛来有效地旋转更广泛的循环。该研究将在TC生命周期的不同阶段使用现有的研究观察结果，从加强和非强化风暴来检验这些假设。主要研究者开发的一种称为武士的新变异分析技术将用于将飞机和雷达观测值整合到三维热力学和运动学领域中，以进行分析。将进行高分辨率的笛卡尔和低水位圆柱体分析，并通过改进的雷达热力学检索进行改进，并使用数值模拟进行增强，以提高我们对TC强化的理解。Boader的影响：这项研究将研究和教育整合到将新的研究生学会与数字化的教科书相互作用，并将其融合到数字上，并融合了数字化的Texter，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合在一起，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合在一起，并将其融合到数字上，并将其融合在一起。鼓励学生使用现场观测来检验科学假设。数字雷达气象学教科书中的开源武士分析软件和材料将向大气科学界使用，以增强研究和教育基础设施。夏威夷大学马诺亚大学代表了EPSCOR管辖范围内的人口统计和地理独特的状态，主要研究人员致力于通过包括妇女和代表性不足的少数群体，例如太平洋岛民和夏威夷原住民，从而改善多样性。我们对TC强度变化的理解的改善可以对社会产生重大积极影响。继续研究飓风和台风研究的发现最终可以帮助提高我们的预测能力，并减少全球的生命和财产损失。