CAREER: Impacts of Convective and Stratiform Processes on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

本研究将透过分析中尺度观测资料，以飞机及多普勒雷达资料为重点，探讨对流及层状云过程对热带气旋强度变化的影响。我们熟练地预测TC强度变化的能力仍然有限，但最近的研究表明，深对流爆发和层状降水相对于最大风速半径（RMW）的径向位置可能在强化效率中发挥重要作用。测试这些新的假设，使用中尺度观测需要诊断最重要的物理过程负责强度变化和改善TC强度forecasts.Intellectual优点：多普勒雷达，投下式探空仪，卫星和其他观测的分析将被用来检查TC对流和层状结构，其热力学和动力学环境，以及它们对TC环流的影响。以往的理论和数值研究表明，对流加热和相关的低层辐合内的RMW可以有效地加强最大风。在RMW之外，与层状降水相关的中层入流可以通过摩擦边界层上方绝对角动量的会聚有效地旋转更广泛的环流。这项研究将利用现有的研究观察在不同阶段的TC生命周期从加强和非加强风暴来测试这些假设。由首席研究员开发的称为SAMURAI的新变分分析技术将用于将飞机和雷达观测结果整合到三维热力学和运动学领域进行分析。高分辨率笛卡尔和低波数圆柱形分析与改进的雷达热力学检索将进行和增强数值模拟，以提高我们对TC intensification.Broader Impacts的理解：这项研究整合了研究和教育，通过开发一个新的研究生雷达气象学课程与数字，交互式教科书，并将中尺度TC观测纳入物理气象课程，以培训和鼓励学生使用现场观测来测试科学假设。开放源码SAMURAI分析软件和数字雷达气象学教科书中的材料将提供给大气科学界，以加强研究和教育基础设施。马诺阿的夏威夷大学代表了EPSCoR管辖范围内人口和地理上独特的州，首席研究员致力于通过将妇女和代表性不足的少数民族（如太平洋岛民和夏威夷土著人）纳入该项目来改善多样性。我们对TC强度变化的理解的提高可以对社会产生重大的积极影响。对飓风和台风的持续研究结果的应用最终将有助于提高我们的预报能力，减少整个地球仪的生命和财产损失。

This study will investigate the impacts of convective and stratiform processes on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change through analysis of mesoscale observations, with a focus on aircraft and Doppler radar data. Our ability to skillfully predict changes in TC intensity is still limited, but recent studies have suggested that the radial location of deep convective bursts and stratiform precipitation relative to the radius of maximum wind (RMW) may play an important role in intensification efficiency. Testing these new hypotheses using mesoscale observations is needed to diagnose the most important physical processes responsible for intensity change and improve TC intensity forecasts.Intellectual Merit:Analysis of Doppler radar, dropsonde, satellite, and other observations will be used to examine TC convective and stratiform structures, their thermodynamic and dynamic environment, and their impacts on the TC circulation. Previous theoretical and numerical studies have suggested that convective heating and associated low-level convergence inside the RMW can efficiently intensify the maximum winds. Outside the RMW, mid-level inflow associated with stratiform precipitation can efficiently spin-up the broader circulation through convergence of absolute angular momentum above the frictional boundary layer. The research will use existing research observations at different stages of the TC lifecycle from intensifying and non-intensifying storms to test these hypotheses. A new variational analysis technique called SAMURAI developed by the Principal Investigator will be used to integrate aircraft and radar observations into three-dimensional thermodynamic and kinematic fields for analysis. High-resolution Cartesian and low-wavenumber cylindrical analyses with improved radar thermodynamic retrievals will be conducted and augmented with numerical simulations to improve our understanding of TC intensification.Broader Impacts:This study integrates research and education by developing a new graduate radar meteorology course with a digital, interactive textbook, and incorporating mesoscale TC observations into physical meteorology curricula to train and encourage students to test scientific hypotheses using field observations. The open source SAMURAI analysis software and material from the digital radar meteorology textbook will be available to the atmospheric science community to enhance research and education infrastructure. The University of Hawaii at Manoa represents a demographically and geographically unique state in an EPSCoR jurisdiction, and the Principal Investigator is committed to improving diversity by including women and underrepresented minorities such as Pacific Islanders and Native Hawaiians in the project. Improvements in our understanding of TC intensity change can have a significant positive impact on society. The application of the findings from continued research on hurricanes and typhoons can ultimately help to improve our forecast ability and reduce life and property loss throughout the globe.