CAREER: Impacts of Convective and Stratiform Processes on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

本文将通过对飞机和多普勒雷达资料的中尺度观测分析，研究对流和层状过程对热带气旋强度变化的影响。我们预测热带气旋强度变化的能力仍然有限，但最近的研究表明，深对流爆发和层状降水相对于最大风半径(RMW)的径向位置可能对增强效率起到重要作用。需要用中尺度观测来检验这些新的假设，以诊断导致强度变化的最重要的物理过程，并改进TC强度预报。智力上的优点：对多普勒雷达、探空仪、卫星和其他观测的分析将被用于研究TC对流和层状结构、它们的热力学和动力环境以及它们对TC环流的影响。以前的理论和数值研究表明，对流加热和与之相关的RMW内部的低层辐合可以有效地增强最大风。在RMW以外，与层状降水相关的中层流入可以通过摩擦边界层上方绝对角动量的辐合而有效地使更广泛的环流加速。这项研究将利用在热带气旋生命周期不同阶段的现有研究观测，从增强和非增强风暴来验证这些假设。由首席调查员开发的一种名为武士的新变分分析技术将被用于将飞机和雷达观测整合到三维热力学和运动场中进行分析。高分辨率的笛卡尔和低波数柱面分析将通过改进的雷达热力学反演进行，并用数值模拟来增强我们对TC增强的理解。广泛的影响：这项研究通过开发一门新的研究生雷达气象学课程和数字交互教科书，并将中尺度TC观测纳入物理气象学课程，将研究和教育结合在一起，以培训和鼓励学生使用现场观测来检验科学假设。将向大气科学界提供开放源码的武士分析软件和数字雷达气象学教科书中的材料，以加强研究和教育基础设施。夏威夷大学马诺阿分校代表着EPSCoR管辖范围内人口和地理上独一无二的州，首席调查员致力于通过将妇女和太平洋岛民和夏威夷土著居民等代表性较低的少数群体纳入该项目来改善多样性。提高我们对TC强度变化的理解可以对社会产生重大的积极影响。应用对飓风和台风的持续研究结果，最终有助于提高我们的预测能力，减少全球范围内的生命和财产损失。

This study will investigate the impacts of convective and stratiform processes on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change through analysis of mesoscale observations, with a focus on aircraft and Doppler radar data. Our ability to skillfully predict changes in TC intensity is still limited, but recent studies have suggested that the radial location of deep convective bursts and stratiform precipitation relative to the radius of maximum wind (RMW) may play an important role in intensification efficiency. Testing these new hypotheses using mesoscale observations is needed to diagnose the most important physical processes responsible for intensity change and improve TC intensity forecasts.Intellectual Merit:Analysis of Doppler radar, dropsonde, satellite, and other observations will be used to examine TC convective and stratiform structures, their thermodynamic and dynamic environment, and their impacts on the TC circulation. Previous theoretical and numerical studies have suggested that convective heating and associated low-level convergence inside the RMW can efficiently intensify the maximum winds. Outside the RMW, mid-level inflow associated with stratiform precipitation can efficiently spin-up the broader circulation through convergence of absolute angular momentum above the frictional boundary layer. The research will use existing research observations at different stages of the TC lifecycle from intensifying and non-intensifying storms to test these hypotheses. A new variational analysis technique called SAMURAI developed by the Principal Investigator will be used to integrate aircraft and radar observations into three-dimensional thermodynamic and kinematic fields for analysis. High-resolution Cartesian and low-wavenumber cylindrical analyses with improved radar thermodynamic retrievals will be conducted and augmented with numerical simulations to improve our understanding of TC intensification.Broader Impacts:This study integrates research and education by developing a new graduate radar meteorology course with a digital, interactive textbook, and incorporating mesoscale TC observations into physical meteorology curricula to train and encourage students to test scientific hypotheses using field observations. The open source SAMURAI analysis software and material from the digital radar meteorology textbook will be available to the atmospheric science community to enhance research and education infrastructure. The University of Hawaii at Manoa represents a demographically and geographically unique state in an EPSCoR jurisdiction, and the Principal Investigator is committed to improving diversity by including women and underrepresented minorities such as Pacific Islanders and Native Hawaiians in the project. Improvements in our understanding of TC intensity change can have a significant positive impact on society. The application of the findings from continued research on hurricanes and typhoons can ultimately help to improve our forecast ability and reduce life and property loss throughout the globe.