SGER: Explaining the African Vote: an Exit Poll in Ghana

在加纳，观察员们曾经期待着一个有序的选举过程，但现在选举过程受到了选民登记问题、数十亿美元石油收入的承诺、肯尼亚选举被盗的例子、在竞选中使用种族诉求，以及一个主要政党有可能赢得一个百分点的胜利等重大挑战。围绕肯尼亚最近选举的违规行为和暴力表明，在一个新生的民主国家举行选举时，假定平静是危险的。这些问题加剧了两党之间和选民内部的紧张关系。为加纳选举进行出口民调将增加对非洲投票决定因素的了解。传统观点认为，非洲人的投票主要基于种族界线。我们认为，这幅图景还远远不够完整。肯尼亚最近的出口民调结果表明，非洲选民与工业民主国家的选民非常相似——他们使用许多信息来源来决定他们的投票，种族只是其中之一。许多选民确实依靠种族来决定他们的投票，但也有许多人没有这样做。事实上，数目惊人的肯尼亚人选择他们的候选人是基于政府的表现。大多数人似乎利用种族和表现的信息来做出选择。令人惊讶的是，对非洲民主国家和选民的研究在探索非洲选民时很少使用系统数据。然而，美国政府——以及其他国家——花费数百万美元在非洲推动民主，但对非洲选民动机的了解仍然模糊不清，而且通常来自轶事、少数案例或调查，而不是实际选举过程的一部分。在这一点上，很少有学者使用最有力的工具来衡量选民的意图和防止欺诈：出口民调。加纳被认为正在成为一个稳定的民主国家，因此了解其选民的动机为更深入地了解非洲政治开辟了道路。围绕选举的事件和议题可以告诉我们公民如何投票。通过在加纳进行出口民意调查，可以以现有工作无法解决的方式探索非洲投票的微观基础。这种方法有可能改变非洲种族和政治的研究。更广泛的影响：该项目将使四名研究生和一名本科生进入该领域。他们将通过帮助构建、管理和分析这次出口调查获得的知识，正是他们在课堂之外推进培训所需要的。对其中两名学生来说，这将是他们第一次到非洲。对所有人来说，这将是他们第一次参与生成原始数据。我们还将帮助培训加纳的数百名人口普查人员。最后，民意调查还可以对可能被证明不可靠的官方结果提供另一种核查。

In Ghana, where once observers expected an orderly affair, the electoral process is now significantly challenged by voter registration problems, the promise of billions of dollars worth of oil revenue, the example of Kenya's stolen election, the use of ethnic appeals in campaigns, and the probability of a single percentage point victory for one of the main parties. The irregularities and violence surrounding Kenya's recent election demonstrates the danger of presuming quiescence when a nascent democracy holds an election. These issues have heightened tension between the parties and within the electorate. Undertaking an exit poll for the Ghanaian election will increase knowledge of the determinants of the African vote. Conventional wisdom is that Africans vote largely upon ethnic lines. We argue that this picture is very far from complete. Recent exit poll results in Kenya demonstrates that African voters are quite similar to those in the industrial democracies -- they use many sources of information to inform their vote, ethnicity being only one. Many voters did rely on ethnicity to inform their vote, but many did not. In fact, a surprising number of Kenyans chose their candidate on the basis of government performance. Most seem to use the information of ethnicity and performance to make their choices. Surprisingly, studies of Africa's democracies and electorate use very little systematic data in their exploration of the continent's voters. And yet, the US government -- as well as other countries -- spends millions of dollars promoting democracy in Africa, and yet knowledge of the motivations of African voters remains murky, and is generally drawn from anecdote, a small number of cases, or surveys that are not part of the actual electoral process. Few scholars to this point have employed the most powerful tool to measure voter intention and checks against fraud: the exit poll. Ghana is considered on its way to being a stable democracy, so understanding the motivations of its voters opens the way to a deeper understanding of African politics. The events and issues that surround the election can inform us as to how citizens vote. By conducting an exit poll in Ghana, the micro-foundation of African Voting can be explored in a manner that existing work does not address. This approach has the potential to transform the study of ethnicity and politics in Africa. Broader impacts: This project will put four graduate students and one undergraduate student in the field. The knowledge they will receive through helping to construct, manage, and analyze this exit poll is precisely what they need to advance training beyond the classroom. For two of the students, it will be their first experience in Africa. For all, it will be the first time they are involved in generating primary data. We will also help in the training of hundreds of enumerators in Ghana. Finally, the poll can also provide another check on the official results which may prove unreliable.