Identification and Decision

研究者计划继续他的研究决策设置与相关人口参数的部分识别。一个主要的持续主题是治疗选择与治疗反应的部分知识。他还将继续他长期以来对身份本身的研究项目。这项关于身份鉴定的研究故意保守。处理部分识别总体参数的抽样过程的传统方法是将现有数据与足够强的假设相结合，以产生点识别。这样的假设往往没有很好的动机，实证研究人员经常争论它们的有效性。保守分析使研究人员能够从现有数据中学习，而不会强加站不住脚的假设。它可以在研究人员之间建立一个共识领域，这些研究人员可能对哪些假设是适当的持有不同的信念。它还清楚地说明了现有数据的局限性。研究者对决策的分析同样是保守的。他的研究表明，社会规划者和其他决策者如何在不强加站不住脚的假设的情况下，在由识别问题和样本数据的统计推断的必要性引起的模糊性下，连贯地应对困难的选择问题。这是通过使用完善的统计决策理论原则，特别是通过应用最小最大后悔准则来实现的。更广泛的影响：许多持续的公共政策争议反映了人们对政府政策对社会影响的不同看法。这种不同的信念往往体现在使用不同分析方法或数据来源得出不同政策结论的政策研究中。每项研究都有自己的道理，每项研究都将数据与猜想结合起来，得出逻辑上有效的结论。然而，可能没有办法确定哪些研究（如果有的话）做出了现实的推测，哪些研究（如果有的话）得出了经验上正确的结论。研究者对经验推断和社会规划的保守态度可以使公众更好地评估现有政策研究的可信度，增强未来政策研究的可信度，提高政策制定的质量

The investigator plans to continue his research on decision making in settings with partial identification of relevant population parameters. A major continuing theme is treatment choice with partial knowledge of treatment response. He also will continue his longstanding program of research on identification per se. This research on identification is deliberately conservative. The traditional way to cope with sampling processes that partially identify population parameters has been to combine the available data with assumptions strong enough to yield point identification. Such assumptions often are not well motivated, and empirical researchers often debate their validity. Conservative analysis enables researchers to learn from the available data without imposing untenable assumptions. It enables establishment of a domain of consensus among researchers who may hold disparate beliefs about what assumptions are appropriate. It also makes plain the limitations of the available data. The analysis by the investigator of decision making is similarly conservative. His research shows how social planners and other decision makers can cope coherently with difficult problems of choice under ambiguity induced by identification problems and the necessity of statistical inference from sample data, without imposing untenable assumptions. This is achieved using well-established principles of statistical decision theory, particularly through application of the minimax-regret criterion.Broader Impacts: Many persistent public policy controversies reflect divergent beliefs about the effects of government policy on society. Such divergent beliefs are often manifest in dueling policy studies that use different analytical approaches or data sources to reach different policy conclusions. Each study may make sense in its own terms, each combining data with conjectures to draw logically valid conclusions. However, there may be no way to determine which study (if either) makes realistic conjectures and which (if either) draws empirically correct conclusions. The conservative approach by the investigator to empirical inference and social planning can enable the public to better evaluate the credibility of existing policy studies, enhance the credibility of future policy research, and improve the quality of policymaking