Crime, War and Wealth in Pre- and Post- Invasion Iraq

SES-0960871约翰·哈根美国律师基金会国家不打战争的方式或与过去相同的后果。 平民日益成为新的和当代战争的受害者。 在萨达姆·侯赛因的伊拉克政权中，针对平民的镇压性犯罪盛行，而在入侵后的联军占领期间，针对平民的经济犯罪变得更加普遍。 伊拉克前政权的罪行为宗派恐惧和冲突奠定了基础，美国领导的入侵释放了这种恐惧和冲突，反过来又导致了针对平民及其财产的猖獗犯罪。 这项研究将通过三项调查来评估这一顺序，其中包括在伊拉克政权更迭前后进行的9,000多次个人访谈。我们将评估在伊拉克是否出现了这样一个序列，即在伊拉克，民族-教派强大的国家镇压和剥夺之后，出现了一个软弱的国家，在这个国家中，对安全、保护和资源需求的恐惧反过来又导致了帮派和民兵的大规模教派抢劫和暴力犯罪。我们将更具体地研究在2005- 2006年达到顶峰的暴力犯罪浪潮是否也将种族-教派财产犯罪提升到了顶峰水平。访谈记录将用于阐述和说明统计结果。过去很少对伊拉克被占领期间的财产损失进行分析。 然而，家庭和商业财富的损失被认为是广泛的，特别是对伊拉克？有400多万人流离失所。 以前的工作预测，国家对犯罪和暴力的控制崩溃是最广泛的混合社区设置。 这可能是因为，随着竞争团体在住宅内或以其他方式密切接触，冲突增加。 这项研究将在入侵后的巴格达社区测试这种预测。 我们预测，入侵后社区中最大种族群体的比例越低，因此种族-教派混合越大，财产和人身犯罪的水平就越高。我们进一步预测，伊拉克的财富再分配首先开始出现在初步抢劫阶段（2003-5年），然后在第二阶段（2005-6年）随着暴力犯罪的增加而达到顶峰，最后在第三个激增时期（2007年）其数量下降，但其再分配后果却没有下降。本研究所用数据集的结合，使我们能够对从强国向弱国过渡过程中暴力犯罪的宗派和经济后果进行独特的案例研究。 这是一种过渡，可能会越来越多地取代旧形式的军事冲突。更广泛的影响：当代战争对军事目标的影响可能小于对平民受害者的健康和社会经济福祉的影响。 这些财富的损失和转移对一些人来说尤其具有破坏性，同时也为其他人提供了巨大的机会。 在发展我们的理解时，重要的是记录和解释伊拉克等环境中财富再分配的族裔-教派方面。这种理解对于解释这些冲突如何破坏和摧毁往往最需要增长和发展的机会至关重要。 在一个不断变化的国际发展和破坏的世界中，传统的军国主义方法对战争的理解往往已经过时。 伊拉克案例研究的主要目的是增加我们对危害平民及其财产的罪行的社会经济后果的理解，这些因素日益成为现代战争的特征。

SES-0960871 John Hagan American Bar FoundationStates do not fight wars in the same ways or with the same consequences as in the past. Civilians are increasingly the victims of new and contemporary wars. While repressive forms of crime against civilians prevailed in the Iraq regime of Saddam Hussein, economic crimes against civilians became more common during the post-invasion Coalition occupation. The crimes of the past Iraq regime set a foundation of sectarian fear and conflict that was released by the US-led invasion and which, in turn, led to rampant crimes against civilians and their property. The research will assess this sequence with three surveys that include more than 9,000 personal interviews conducted before and after the regime change in Iraq. We will assess whether a sequence unfolded in which ethno-sectarian strong state repression and deprivation was followed in Iraq by a weak state in which fears about safety, protection, and resource needs in turn caused extensive sectarian looting and violent crime by gangs and militias. We will more specifically examine whether the wave of violent crimes that peaked in 2005-6 also elevated ethno-sectarian crimes against property to peak levels. The interview accounts will be used to elaborate and illustrate statistical findings. There is little past analysis of property losses during the occupation of Iraq. Yet the loss of household and business wealth is assumed to be extensive, especially for Iraq?s more than four million displaced persons. Previous work predicts that breakdown in state control over crime and violence is most extensive in mixed community settings. This is likely because conflict increases as contesting groups come into close residential contact or in other ways. The research will test such predictions in the post-invasion neighborhoods of Baghdad. We predict that the lower the proportion of the largest ethnic group in a post-invasion neighborhood, and therefore the greater the ethno-sectarian mix, the higher the level of property and person crime. We further predict that a redistribution of wealth in Iraq first began to emerge during a preliminary looting stage (2003-5), then peaked with the rise of violent crimes against persons in a second stage (2005-6), and finally declined in its volume but not in its re-distributional consequences in the third period of the Surge (2007). The combination of data sets available for this research allows a unique case study of the sectarian and economic consequences of violent crime in a transition from a strong to weak state. This is a kind of transition that may be increasingly replacing older forms of military conflict. Broader Impacts: Contemporary wars may be less consequential for military targets than they are for the health and socio-economic well-being of civilian victims. These losses and transfers of wealth can be especially devastating for some while presenting enormous opportunities for others. It is important in developing our understanding to document and explain ethno-sectarian aspects of the redistribution of wealth in settings such as Iraq. This understanding is essential to explaining how these conflicts disrupt and destroy opportunities for growth and development where it often is needed most. Traditional militaristic approaches to the understanding of war in a changing world of international development and destruction are often outdated. The primary goal of this case study in Iraq is to increase our understanding of the socio-economic consequences of crimes against civilians and their property, elements that increasingly characterize modern day warfare.