Marine Metapopulation Connectivity: Modeling, Estimation and Demographic Consequences

该项目的目标是开发一个易于处理的模型框架，用于估计海洋集合种群的连通性及其人口影响。这将通过利用重力、人口统计和生物/水动力耦合模型的多方面方法来实现。目标是：(1)从影响幼虫扩散和定居的一系列生境和海洋学指标中确定种群连通性的可靠预测因子。这些指标的预测能力将通过开发重力模型来评估，该模型纳入了出生和定居地点的属性，以及从栖息地分布得出的“距离”函数，以及描述扩散概率如何随旅行时间下降的生物-水动力耦合模型。(2)评估这些预报因子和不同形式的重力模型在不同时间和空间尺度上的稳健性，以检查它们对一系列海洋集合种群的适用性。(3)发展矩阵集合种群模型，以更好地理解物理海洋过程和扩散行为如何影响海洋集合种群的动态和空间连通性。对巴布亚新几内亚金贝湾禁捕海洋保护区网络的空间招募模式进行广泛研究，将提供经验数据，以制定和评价估计海洋群落集合种群连通性的模型框架，在这些社区中，无法直接估计幼虫的扩散和定居模式。这些努力将通过对两种不同生活史和栖息地用途的珊瑚礁鱼类的DNA亲缘关系和跨代同位素标记研究来指导。这些数据集代表了迄今为止对招募模式的最广泛的空间分析，并将允许在多个空间和时间尺度上评估建模方法，以创建一个通用的建模框架，该框架既具有经验相关性，又适用于对种群连接性先验知识较少的其他海洋集合种群。估计种群连接性并评估其驱动因素和人口统计学后果，对于理解物种将如何应对栖息地丧失、气候变化和不断变化的海洋过程以及各种空间管理努力至关重要。除了有助于了解金贝湾珊瑚礁鱼类种群连通性的驱动因素以及为管理热带和温带珊瑚礁鱼类集合种群提供指导外，该项目的成果还将提供一个框架，以确定针对目标的关键实地测量。这项研究将开发纳入DNA亲缘关系和同位素标记分析的新发展的方法，借鉴目前基于栖息地分布和生物物理耦合模型预测种群连通性的方法，并提供关键和及时的人口信息。这个项目将资助一名研究生，他的论文研究将是这项研究的组成部分。它还将包括几名暑期本科生研究员的参与。由于该项目与海洋养护和管理高度相关，研究成果将通过与国际合作者举行的会议、在科学会议上的陈述、通过研究生课程和开发一个项目网站来传播。所有调查人员都与负责资源管理和保护的各种机构分享了他们的专业知识。通过产生实用的工具，提高估计人口连通性和评估集合种群动态的能力，该项目的结果将为科学界提供信息，并改进执行海洋空间规划所急需的知识。

The goal of this project is to develop a tractable modeling framework for estimating marine metapopulation connectivity and its demographic consequences. This will be achieved using a multifaceted approach which draws upon gravity, demographic, and biological/hydrodynamic coupled models. The objectives are to: (1) Determine reliable predictors of population connectivity from a range of habitat and oceanographic metrics that influence larval dispersal and settlement. The predictive ability of these metrics will be assessed through the development of gravity models which incorporate both natal and settlement site attributes as well as "distance" functions derived from habitat distributions and biological-hydrodynamic coupled models which describe how dispersal probability declines with travel time. (2) Evaluate the robustness of these predictors and different forms of the gravity model at various temporal and spatial scales to examine their suitability for a range of marine metapopulations. (3) Develop matrix metapopulation models to improve understanding of how physical oceanographic processes and dispersal behavior influence the dynamics and spatial connectivity of marine metapopulations. Extensive research of spatial recruitment patterns across a no-take marine reserve network in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, will provide the empirical data to develop and evaluate a modeling framework for estimating metapopulation connectivity in marine communities where direct estimation of larval dispersal and settlement patterns remains intangible. These efforts will be guided by DNA parentage and trans-generational isotope labeling research of two coral reef fishes with different life histories and habitat usage. These datasets represent the most spatially expansive analysis of recruitment patterns to date and will allow evaluation of modeling approaches across multiple spatial and temporal scales to create a general modeling framework which is both empirically relevant and adaptable to other marine metapopulations with less a priori knowledge of population connectivity.Estimating population connectivity and evaluating its drivers and demographic consequences is vital to comprehending how species will respond to habitat loss, climate change and shifting oceanographic processes, as well as various spatial management efforts. In addition to providing benefits to understanding the drivers of coral reef fish population connectivity in Kimbe Bay and guidance for the management of tropical and temperate reef fish metapopulations, the results of this project will provide a framework for identifying key field measurements to target. This study will develop ways to incorporate emerging developments in DNA parentage and isotope labeling analyses, draw upon current approaches for predicting population connectivity based on habitat distribution and biophysical coupled models, and provide critical and timely demographic information. This project will support a graduate student whose dissertation research will be an integral part of this study. It will also include the participation of several summer undergraduate research fellows. As the project is highly relevant to marine conservation and management, research findings will be disseminated at meetings with international collaborators, presentations at scientific conferences, through graduate courses, and the development of a project website. All investigators have shared their expertise with a variety of agencies responsible for resource management and conservation. By generating practical tools which advance the ability to estimate population connectivity and evaluate metapopulation dynamics, the results of this project will be informative to the scientific community and improve much needed knowledge for the implementation of marine spatial planning.