A quantitative analysis of heuristics and discounting models of intertemporal choice

从历史上看，贴现效用模型被认为是人们如何在跨期前景（例如，在今天收到一定数量的钱和在未来某个日期收到一定数量的钱加上利息之间。 然而，有大量的证据表明，实际行为系统地偏离了模型的预测。在文献中已经提出了各种替代方案。其中一些偏离了贴现效用的指数贴现假设，而另一些则假设跨期选择是基于简单决策的应用。 在这个研究项目中，PI（与Jeffrey R. Steven在德国马克斯·普朗克人类发展研究所适应行为和认知中心的实验室）将为跨期选择的竞争理论开发成熟的概率规范，并应用不受聚合人工行为影响的定量方法来测试其相对准确性。 跨期选择是许多社会最紧迫决策的基础，从全球气候变化和肥胖战争等集体决策到饮酒和投资退休计划等更个人的决策。事实上，我们所做的所有决定都有时间的成分。这使得跨期选择与广泛的学科相关（例如，经济学、心理学、生物学、神经科学、金融学、医学、环境科学）。尽管人们对这一主题有着广泛的兴趣，但我们对个体如何做出跨期选择的认识仍然存在重大差距。本申请中提出的研究意义重大，因为它将使我们能够调查个体在做出跨期选择时使用的不同认知过程。 同样重要的是个体间差异的问题。我们并没有将变化视为数据中的噪音，而是希望显示不同人之间存在很大的质的差异。就更广泛的影响而言，这可能允许简单的“轻推”，通过定制个人决策情景来帮助人们做出更好的决策，重点关注健康生活方式、安全的财务未来和环境管理的长期利益。这些科学发现将影响基础和应用决策科学家的未来培训。通过消除人工制品的主要来源，该项目可以帮助改善未来社会决策的各个层面。

The Discounted Utility model has, historically, been regarded as the appropriate model of how people make choices between intertemporal prospects (e.g., between receiving some amount of money today versus that amount of money plus interest at some future date.) However, there is abundant evidence that actual behavior systematically departs from the predictions of the model. A variety of alternatives have been proposed in the literature. Some of these depart from Discounted Utility's assumption of exponential discounted while others assume that intertemporal choices are made based on the application of simple decision heuristics. In this research project, the PI (in close cooperation with Dr. Jeffrey R. Steven's lab at the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Germany) will develop full-fledged probabilistic specifications of competing theories for intertemporal choice and apply quantitative methods immune from aggregation artificacts to test their relative veracity. Intertemporal choices underlie many of society's most pressing decisions, from collective decisions such as global climate change and the war on obesity to more personal decisions such as consuming alcohol and investing in retirement plans. Virtually all decisions we make have a temporal component. This makes intertemporal choice relevant across a broad range of disciplines (e.g., economics, psychology, biology, neuroscience, finance, medicine, environmental science). Despite the extensive interest in this topic, there still is a critical gap in our knowledge of how individuals make intertemporal choices. The research proposed in this application is significant because it will allow us to investigate the different cognitive processes that individuals use when making intertemporal choices.  Equally significant is the question of interindividual differences. Rather than dismissing variation as noise in the data, we expect to show strong qualitative differences among different people. In terms of broader impacts, this may  allow simple ``nudges'' to help people make better decisions by customizing individual decision scenarios to focus on the long-term benefits of a healthy lifestyle, a secure financial future, and environmental stewardship. The scientific findings will impact future training of basic and applied decision scientists. By eliminating major sources of artifacts, the project can help improve all levels of societal decision making in the future.