Collaborative Research: The Arctic Springtime Transition: Dynamics, Impacts, and Future Changes

在北极，春天来得很突然。北极春季的突然到来是由于巴芬湾和拉布拉多海高压的发展以及急流和风暴路径的转变。这些变化对北极气候和环境至关重要，对北极人民和生态系统产生重大影响。该项目将检验春季北极过渡是一种动力现象的假设，它是由春季平流层最终变暖的向下影响、格陵兰岛及其周围的气流和北大西洋上空的大气波的突然变化以及进入北极的风暴频率和路径的变化所驱动的。春季过渡影响地表气候，并可能受到地表过程反馈的影响。通过对大气和北极地表数据的分析、全球大气模式的实验以及对20世纪和未来气候模拟的分析，将探讨北极春季动力开始对北极未来变化的影响。该项目将发展对北极春季转变及其与北极环境相互作用的动态理解。它将利用这一认识来评估基于其模拟春季过渡能力的气候模式，并将检查模式对春季过渡的时间、强度和结构变化所导致的北极环境未来变化的预测。

In the Arctic, the arrival of spring is sudden. The abrupt onset of Arctic spring comes with the development of high pressure over Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea and shifts in the jet stream and storm tracks. These changes are important for the Arctic climate and environment and have critical influences on Arctic peoples and ecosystems. This project will test the hypothesis that the spring Arctic transition is a dynamical phenomenon, driven by the downward influence of the springtime stratospheric final warming, abrupt changes in the flow over and around Greenland and in atmospheric waves over the North Atlantic, and shifts in the frequency and tracks of storms entering the Arctic. The spring transition effects the surface climate and is likely modified by feedbacks from surface processes. The implications of the dynamical onset of Arctic spring for future changes in the Arctic will be explored, through analyses of atmospheric and Arctic surface data, experiments with a global atmospheric model, and analyses of 20th Century and future climate simulations. This project will develop a dynamical understanding of the Arctic spring transition and its interactions with the Arctic environment. It will use this understanding to evaluate climate models based on their ability to simulate the spring transition, and it will examine model projections of future changes in the Arctic environment resulting from changes in the timing, strength, and structure of the spring transition.