LiT: Phenotype-based models for ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change

生物体的形态和生理特征如何决定它们对气候变化的反应？哪些特征更有可能进化？为了解决这些问题，这个项目将把实验室和野外实验与科罗拉多州落基山脉两种科里亚斯蝴蝶的数学模型结合起来。将测量温度如何影响幼虫的摄食、发育和耐热性，并将这些结果与历史实验室数据(30-50年)进行比较，以检测进化变化。该项目还将比较成人的形态特征和耐热性与历史数据和博物馆标本(100年)。为了研究特征如何影响性能，将进行不同海拔地点的幼虫和成虫的相互移植。这些数据将被用来开发模型，预测在不断变化的气候条件下，特征如何决定生存和繁殖。为了预测未来环境变化对Colias模型的影响，将应用具有和不具有特征进化的模拟。这项研究将培养本科生和研究生进行跨学科的环境变化研究。该项目将继续倡议本科生通过文章和播客报告当前的进化研究，并培训高中教师全球变化生态学。我们将把我们的模型应用于落基山国家公园的Colias，并公开发布我们对可能的气候变化影响的预测。

How do the morphological and physiological traits of organisms determine their responses to climate change? Which traits are more likely to evolve? To address these questions this project will integrate lab and field experiments with mathematical models for two species of Colias butterflies in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. How temperature affects larval feeding, development, and heat tolerance will be measured and these results will be compared to historical lab data (30-50 years) to detect evolutionary changes. This project will also compare adult morphological traits and heat tolerance to historical data and museum specimens (100 years). To examine how traits influence performance, reciprocal transplant of larvae and adults across sites at different elevations will be conducted. These data will be used to develop models that predict how traits determine survival and reproduction in changing climate conditions. To predict the impact of future environmental change on Colias model simulations with and without trait evolution will be applied. The research will train undergraduate and graduate students to conduct interdisciplinary environmental change research. The project will continue initiatives for undergraduates to report current evolutionary research via articles and podcasts and to train high school teachers in global change ecology. We will apply our models to Colias in Rocky Mountain National Park and publically disseminate our predictions of possible climate change impacts.