RAPID: Pyroclastic Surge Dynamics in the 2010 Merapi Eruption

这是一个快速奖项，旨在研究2010年印度尼西亚默拉皮火山灾难性喷发所产生的火山碎屑涌流沉积的动力学。火山喷发中火山碎屑流和喷涌造成了大部分人员伤亡，但由于缺乏重大事件，如Merapi在最近喷发阶段所表现的那样，对喷发过程的了解滞后。这位研究人员和他的团队为熔岩穹顶坍塌类型的火山碎屑流开发了一种受统计约束的程序，以估计活动事件后淹没的区域。相关涌浪的动态行为可以通过考虑涌浪流、质量通量和空气卷吸的物理特性以及局部地形来考虑。该方法已应用于几次火山危机，特别是2006年默拉皮火山喷发以及2007年和2010年蒙特塞拉特火山危机。它也被用于世界各地其他地点的危险评估，但尽管已被证明具有实用价值，但它仅限于特定类型的流动过程。最近的2010年10月至11月默拉皮火山喷发提供了一个难得的“百年一遇”的机会，将基于物理的模拟扩展和约束到柱状坍塌类型的火山碎屑流和相关的火山灰云涌动。这次默拉皮喷发以传统的穹顶坍塌模式开始，但发展成为一次主要的VEI~4爆发，这是自(至少)1872年以来那里最大的一次喷发。PI和他的团队预测了这种规模的爆炸性喷发的可能性，现在已经发生了，有责任最大限度地增加科学和其他影响。建议进一步完善Merapi的涌浪模型，该模型将延续到其他流动建模方法，如不能充分解决喘振问题的Tian2D方法。拟议的涌浪研究针对的是一个机会目标，需要尽快开展，因为稀薄的矿藏容易腐烂，关键信息将会丢失。因此，快速授标是支持拟议工作的最适当机制。更广泛的影响是多方面的，其中包括促进风险缓解规划和危机应对的组织，如世界各地的火山观测站，危机的学术顾问，以及经常在一般情况下协助应对危机的世界火山观测站组织(WOVO)。归根结底，受益最大的可能是居住在危险火山两侧的大量人口。预计将通过在国际和国家科学会议和讲习班、在学术和政府机构以及地方天文台的讲座、已发表作品的介绍摘要、同行评议的知名科学期刊和电子媒体上的文章，向学者和从业人员传播研究成果。

This is a RAPID award to investigate the dynamics of pyroclastic surge deposits created by the catastrophic 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia. Pyroclastic flows and surges cause most casualties in volcanic eruptions but understanding of surge processes is lagging due to the paucity of major events such as the one displayed by Merapi during its recent eruption phase. This investigator and his team have developed a statistically constrained procedure for lava dome-collapse type pyroclastic flows to estimate areas of inundation following an active event. Dynamic behavior of associated surges can be included by consideration of the physics of surge flow, mass flux and air entrainment, and local topography. The method has been applied to several volcano crises, notably the 2006 eruption of Merapi and 2007 and 2010 crises at Montserrat. It is also being used for hazards evaluations at other locations worldwide, but while of proven utility it is restricted to a particular type of flow process. The recent Oct-Nov 2010 eruption at Merapi offers a rare "Once-in-a-Century" opportunity to extend and constrain physics-based modeling to column-collapse type pyroclastic flows with associated ash-cloud surges. This Merapi eruption started in its traditional dome-collapse mode but developed into a major VEI~4 explosive eruption, the largest eruption there since (at least) 1872. The likelihood of an explosive eruption on this scale was forecast by the PI and his team, and now that it has occurred it is incumbent to maximize the scientific and other impacts. It is proposed to further refine the surge model for Merapi that would carry over to other flow modeling methods such as Titan2D which inadequately address the surge issue. The proposed study of the surges addresses a target of opportunity and needs to be carried out soon because the thin deposits are perishable and key information would be lost. Thus a RAPID award is the most appropriate mechanism for supporting the proposed work. The broader impacts are many and include as beneficiaries of this research organizations that foster risk mitigation planning and crisis response, such as volcano observatories worldwide, academic advisors to crises, and those such as the World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) that often aid crisis responses generally. Ultimately it is the often-large populations living on the flanks of dangerous volcanoes who may benefit most. Findings are expected to be disseminated to academics and practitioners through rapid communication at international and national scientific meetings and workshops, lectures at academic and government institutions and local observatories, abstracts of presentations in published works, and articles in peer-reviewed high-profile scientific journals, and electronic media.