Analysis of Polar Module on the 2010 General Social Survey

环北极地区一直在经历强烈的气候和环境变化，这些变化主要源自其他地区，但不仅对北方居民和生态系统有影响，而且对中纬度气候也有影响。北极和南极地区也正经历着以资源为导向的具有生态系统影响的人类活动的增加。如果没有公众的了解，明智地解决两极问题的政策前景会更糟。拟议的研究将利用2010年综合社会调查（GSS）极地模块提供的独特信息资源，进行深入分析，有可能为政策提供信息，并将结果应用于教育。在国际极地年（IPY, 2007-2008）前后，GSS分别在2006年和2010年进行了极地模块问题。Hamilton（2008）的早期工作详细研究了2006年的回应。本文提出的分析将检验2010年极地模块的回应，并调查它们与受访者之间的关系——一般和极地科学知识，与科学或国际极地年相关活动的接触，以及他们的背景或信仰特征，包括教育、年龄、性别和意识形态。由于2006年GSS首次提出了相同的问题，研究小组还将研究两极问题反应的变化，使用GSS的面板组件来检测个人和社会的变化。该方法涉及各种表格、图形和建模技术的深思熟虑的应用。数据分析将是多方面的，并在适当情况下采用最先进的技术。指导原则是稳健性和可重复性，旨在识别在测量和统计技术的变化中显示稳定性的重要结论。多变量分析将使用概率加权二项、多项或有序logit模型来检验关于教育、科学知识、信息来源和其他因素对极性主题感知的影响的假设。在深入到多元模型之前，简单地检查表格和图表是关键的第一步。针对普通公众的演讲将通过图形将主要发现可视化。极地模块是围绕国际极地年设计的，因此其结果将在不久的将来具有更大的价值，而国际极地年的评估仍在进行中。2010年GSS的横断面数据于2011年2月发布。其中包括大约700名首次回答极地模块问题的GSS受访者。2010年GSS的小组部分将于2011年春末发布，其中包括大约700个额外的关于极地问题的访谈。许多人分别在2006年和2010年两次回答了有关极地的问题。对面板组成部分的分析可能有助于正在进行的IPY影响评估。研究结果将与气候变化教育等其他项目分享。对2010年GSS的及时分析也将为未来全国调查设计新的两极问题提供信息。此分析的可交付成果将包括至少一篇学术论文，重要的是，一份可公开访问的报告。该报告将于2012年初夏发布。2012年的成果将在公众或利益攸关方会议以及适当的专业论坛上进行介绍。GSS数据是公开的，研究小组将存档为促进极地模块问题分析而开发的其他程序。

The circumpolar North has been experiencing strong climate and environmental changes, largely originating elsewhere but with implications not only for northern residents and ecosystems but for mid-latitude climate as well. Both northern and southern polar regions also are experiencing an increase in resource-directed human activities with ecosystem effects. Without public knowledge, prospects are worse for policies that sensibly address polar issues. The proposed research will utilize a unique information resource presented by the 2010 General Social Survey (GSS) polar module, conducting in-depth analysis with the potential to inform policy and with educational applications of results. The polar module questions were carried on the GSS in 2006 and again in 2010, before and after the International Polar Year (IPY, 2007-2008). Earlier work by Hamilton (2008) examined the 2006 responses in detail. The analysis proposed here will examine the 2010 polar module responses, and investigate how they relate to respondents - general and polar science knowledge, contact with science- or IPY-related activities, and their background or belief characteristics including education, age, gender and ideology. Because the same questions were first asked on the 2006 GSS, the research team will also study changes in polar-issue responses, using the panel component of GSS to detect individual, as well as social shifts. The approach involves thoughtful application of diverse tabular, graphic, and modeling techniques. Data analysis will be multifaceted and, where appropriate, state of the art. Guiding principles are robustness and replication, aimed at identifying nontrivial conclusions that show stability across variations in measurement and statistical techniques. Multivariate analysis will use probability-weighted binomial, multinomial or ordered logit modeling to test hypotheses about the effects of education, science knowledge, information sources, and other factors on perceptions about polar topics. Simpler examination of tables and graphs forms a critical first step before advancing to multivariate models. Presentations aimed at general-public audiences will visualize key findings through graphics. The polar module was designed around IPY, so its results will have substantially greater value in the immediate future, while IPY evaluations are ongoing. Cross-sectional data for the 2010 GSS were released in February 2011. These include about 700 first-time GSS respondents who answered the polar module questions. The panel component of 2010 GSS will be released in late spring 2011, and including about 700 additional interviews with the polar questions. Many people answered the polar questions twice, in 2006 and 2010. Analysis of the panel component could contribute to the ongoing assessment of IPY impacts. Results will be shared with other projects such as those on climate change education. Timely analysis of the 2010 GSS will also inform the design of new polar-issue questions for future national surveys. Deliverables from this analysis will include at least one academic paper and, importantly, one publicly accessible report. The report will be published by early summer 2012. Presentations of results in 2012 will be made at general public or stakeholder meetings, as well as appropriate professional forums. The GSS data are public, and the research team will archive additional programs developed to facilitate analysis of the polar module questions.