The Seasonal Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Mechanisms and Robustness across Models

PI建议在一个一致的框架内使用4个最先进的耦合气候模式参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第4和第5次评估报告，以调查与北极海冰损失的季节性大气响应相关的几个悬而未决的问题，包括：模式对北极海冰损失的相同处方的敏感性;夏末/初秋与冬季海冰退缩的相对作用;对流层-平流层耦合和地面积雪的中介作用。通过在所有4个模型中使用相同的实验设计，他们预计能够评估季节性大气和地面气候响应的稳健性，并确定潜在的物理过程，包括模型在内的许多来源将为政策和管理对未来气候变化情景的反应提供信息。 众所周知，模型输出的某些方面在模型之间是鲁棒的，而其他方面则不那么鲁棒。 大学，政府和国际科学家之间的伙伴关系有助于这项研究，将评估模型的鲁棒性和不确定性方面的各种极地过程。

The PIs propose to use 4 state-of-the-art coupled climate models participating in theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th and 5th Assessment Reports in a consistent framework to investigate several outstanding issues related to the seasonal atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss including: model sensitivity to identical prescriptions of Arctic sea ice loss; the relative roles of late summer/early autumn vs. winter sea ice retreat; and the mediating influences of troposphere-stratosphere coupling and terrestrial snow cover. By using the same experimental design in all 4 models, they anticipate being able to assess the robustness of the seasonal atmospheric and surface climate response as well as identify the underlying physical processes.Policy and management responses to scenarios of future climate change will be informed by many sources, including models. It is known that some aspects of model output are robust between models and others are less so. The partnership between university, government, and international scientists contributing to this study will assess the robustness and uncertainty of models with respect to various polar processes.