IBSS: Analyses of Relationships Between Changing Environmental Conditions and Societal Conflict

这一跨学科研究项目将侧重于普遍的说法，即环境变化将在世界脆弱地区导致更多冲突，特别是在撒哈拉以南的非洲。该项目将提供与撒哈拉以南非洲暴力有关的环境影响的科学证据，并将研究环境变化如何影响普通人的生活。预计冲突不会是气温上升、降雨量减少和变化更大、植被变化和其他环境因素的直接结果。相反，环境变化预计将导致应对能力有限的国家出现资源短缺。在受影响最严重的地区，族裔群体和社区之间对日益减少的资源的竞争日益加剧，可能导致日益扩大的差距、移民带来的人口变化以及关于资源分配的争议。关于环境变化影响的范围，现有研究尚无定论。虽然大规模研究表明暴力水平不断上升，但一些人认为，暴力与持续的政治、种族、经济和治理因素有关。研究人员将使用一个模型，将气候变化和可变性、生态后果、社会稳定和不稳定的衡量标准，以及包括适应和诉诸暴力在内的可能结果联系起来。他们将研究撒哈拉以南非洲不同地区的环境变化和变异性之间的关系，并将对肯尼亚的局势进行更有针对性的审查，肯尼亚最近经历了越来越多的关于资源分配和种族竞争加剧的争议。使用从肯尼亚不同生态区收集的1500名受访者的数据，研究人员将从肯尼亚各地不同人口的角度研究面对气候压力、粮食安全挑战、种族关系和政治竞争的适应和反应过程。这个项目将产生新的视角、信息和见解，了解不断变化的环境条件与当代社会功能之间的复杂互动，包括社会适应和应对变化的方式。这个项目的重点是撒哈拉以南的非洲，这将为许多人认为受到气候、植被和其他环境因素变化显著影响的地区的社会环境动态和前景提供特别的见解。该项目将促进对复杂的社会和环境系统相互作用的基本理解，并将有助于考虑旨在解决贫困、社会紧张和环境退化等问题的政策、计划和其他措施。该项目通过NSF跨学科行为和社会科学研究(IBSS)竞赛得到支持。

This interdisciplinary research project will focus on widespread claims that environmental change will lead to more conflict in vulnerable areas of the world, especially in Africa south of the Sahara. This project will provide scientific evidence about environmental effects related to violence across Africa south of the Sahara and will examine how environmental changes are affecting the lives of ordinary people. Conflict is not expected to be a direct result of rising temperatures, decreased and more variable rainfall, changes in vegetation, and other environmental factors. Instead; environmental change is expected to result in resource scarcities in countries whose response capacities are limited. Increasing competition among ethnic groups and communities over dwindling resources in the areas most affected can lead to growing disparities, population changes through migration, and controversy regarding resource distribution. Existing research is inconclusive regarding the scope of the effects of environmental change. While large-scale studies have shown rising levels of violence, some have argued that violence is linked to ongoing political, ethnic, economic, and governance factors. The researchers will use a model linking climate change and variability, ecological consequences, measures of social stability and instability, and possible outcomes that include adaptation and recourse to violence. They will study the relationships between environmental change and variability across the diverse regions of Africa south of the Sahara, and they will conduct a more focused examination of the situation in Kenya, which recently has experienced growing controversy regarding of resource distribution and increased levels of ethnic competition. Using data gathered from 1,500 respondents from different ecological regions of Kenya, the researchers will study the process of adaptation and response through the perspectives of the varied population across Kenya in the face of climate stressors, food-security challenges, ethnic relations, and political competition.This project will yield new perspectives, information, and insights regarding the complex interactions between changing environmental conditions and the functioning of contemporary societies, including the ways that societies adapt and respond to change. This project's focus on Africa south of the Sahara will provide special insights into the socio-environmental dynamics in and prospects for a region considered by many to be a region significantly influenced by changes in climate, vegetation, and other environmental factors. This project will advance basic understanding of complex social and environmental system interactions, and it will contribute to consideration of policies, programs, and other measures designed to address problems like poverty, social tensions, and environmental degradation. This project is supported through the NSF Interdisciplinary Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (IBSS) competition.