Microentrepreneurship, Business Growth and SME transition: The Long-run Impact of Repayment Flexibility

建议编号：SE-1329354机构：国家经济研究局IncNSF计划：ECONOMICS主要调查者：潘德，罗希尼标题：微型创业、商业增长和中小企业转型：还款灵活性的长期影响金融包容性被誉为与贫困作斗争的重要工具。金融包容性的一个明显好处是，它使接受者能够创办和发展创收的微型企业。然而，对最广为人知的将穷人与信贷联系起来的方法之一--小额信贷--的影响研究表明，平均而言，小额贷款在实现企业增长方面取得的成功相对较小。更广泛地说，大多数微型企业未能成长为规模更大、更可持续的企业，这给发展经济学领域带来了一个重大难题。为了了解提供小额信贷与微型企业成长的异质性之间的关系--以及了解微型企业向中小企业地位过渡的制约因素--本项目将结合产生大量增长成果的小额信贷实地试验与关于企业历史和企业主个人特征的详细数据相结合。这笔国家科学基金会赠款将通过实施一项研究设计，利用(1)印度小额信贷部门的流动性危机和(2)初始微型企业规模的试验性变化所带来的外生变化，来研究微型企业的增长。2010年底，这些客户群体面临着与全部门小额信贷监管制度改革有关的非常严重的流动性危机。这一变化是由南印度一系列小额信贷客户困境账户引发的。这场流动性危机从南印度蔓延到该国其他地区的小额信贷客户。微型企业规模的差异是2006年至2007年期间在印度加尔各答对小额信贷贷款客户进行的实地试验造成的：对照客户被要求按照标准合同立即开始偿还，而处理客户则获得两个月的宽限期。菲尔德等人。(即将公布的)显示，客户在业务规模上经历了长期的异质性，与对照组相比，治疗客户的增长更快。目前的研究将重新调查实验干预中的所有845名受试者，以生成一个七年的纵向数据集。这项调查的时机将允许审查企业规模是否以及如何抑制流动性危机对后续业务增长的影响。由于研究人群在这一时期面临显著的总体流动性危机，因此本研究将考察企业规模如何影响应对金融冲击的能力。此外，原始跟踪数据显示，在过去六年中，相当一部分样本微型企业的资本价值大幅增长。因此，除了审查菲尔德等人(即将进行的)干预的长期影响，以及上述流动性危机是否根据企业的初始规模对企业产生不同影响之外，调查扩展还将分析从微型企业到中小企业地位的企业增长的决定因素。最后，这项调查将提供管理和所有权信息，以便按性别比较企业业绩。这一证据将补充之前比较男性和女性创业绩效的研究，并通过检验家庭内部企业分工(不同性别)本身是否内生来进一步补充这一研究。如果是，这将是对任何比较女性和男性所有的企业以隔离所有者性别对企业增长的影响的研究的重要警告。这项关于制约微型企业扩张的研究的结果和结论将适用于印度，但也适用于其他具有类似社会经济概况的国家。随着南亚准备进入一个新的监管制度，这项工作也将对该区域的小额金融监管产生重大影响。这些发现将有助于确定是否应该以及如何监管合同灵活性，应该在多大程度上重视客户筛选，以及利率补贴的作用。最后，研究结果也与寻求提高妇女地位的政策有关，因为它为实现这一目标的方法提供了证据，并将有助于目前学术文献中关于这一主题的辩论。

AbstractProposal No: SES - 1329354Institution: National Bureau of Economic Research IncNSF Program: ECONOMICSPrincipal Investigator: Pande, RohiniTitle: Micro-entrepreneurship, Business Growth and SME transition: The Long-run Impact of Repayment FlexibilityFinancial inclusion is lauded as an important tool in the fight against poverty. One perceived benefit of financial inclusion is that it enables recipients to launch and grow income-generating microenterprises. Yet, impact studies of one of the most widely recognized methods of connecting the poor to credit- microfinance- suggest that the success of microloans in achieving enterprise growth is, on average, relatively small. More broadly, the failure of most microenterprises to grow into larger and more sustainable businesses has posed a major puzzle to the field of development economics. In order to understand the relationship between the provision of microfinance and the heterogeneity in microenterprise growth - and to understand constraints on microenterprise transition to SME status - this project will combine a microfinance field experiment that yielded large growth results with detailed data on business histories and individual characteristics of business owners. This National Science Foundation grant will enable the study of microenterprise growth by implementing a research design that exploits exogenous variation introduced by (1) a liquidity crisis in the Indian microcredit sector, and experimental variation in (2) initial microenterprise size. At the end of 2010, this client population faced a very significant liquidity crisis related to a sector-wide microfinance regulatory regime change. This change was sparked by a series of microfinance client distress accounts in South India. This liquidity crisis spread from South India to microfinance clients through the rest of the country. The variation in microenterprise size was created by a field experiment conducted on microcredit loan clients in Kolkata, India between 2006 and 2007: control clients were required to begin repayment immediately in accordance with the standard contract, while treatment clients received a two-month grace period. Field et al. (forthcoming) show that clients experienced long-run heterogeneity in business size, with higher growth among treatment clients relative to the control group. The current study will resurvey all 845 clients in the experimental intervention to generate a seven-year longitudinal dataset. The timing of this survey will allow the examination of whether and how business size dampens the impact of a liquidity crisis on subsequent business growth. Because the study population faced a significant aggregate liquidity crisis during this time period, this study will investigate how enterprise size influences ability to deal with financial shocks. Additionally, the original tracking data show that, over the past six years, a significant fraction of sample microenterprises witnessed substantial growth in capital value. Thus, in addition to examining the long-run impacts of the Field et al (forthcoming) intervention, and whether the aforementioned liquidity crisis differentially impacted business according to their initial size, the survey expansion will analyze the determinants of business growth from microenterprise towards SME status. Lastly, this survey will have managerial and ownership information that will allow the comparison of business performance by gender. This evidence will complement previous research comparing male versus female entrepreneurial performance, and further it by examining whether intra-household division of enterprises (across genders) is itself endogenous. If yes, this would be an important caveat on any research that compares female- and male-owned businesses in order to isolate the impact of owner gender on business growth.The results and conclusions of this study on constraints to microenterprise expansion will be relevant for India, but also other countries with similar socioeconomic profiles. With South Asia poised to enter a new regulatory regime, this work will also have significant implications for microfinance regulation in the region. The findings will help identify whether and how contract flexibility should be regulated, how much emphasis should be placed on client screening, and the role of interest rate subsidies. Finally, the results are also relevant for policy that seeks to increase the status of women, as it provides evidence on approaches that serve that goal, and will contribute to the current debate in academic literature on this topic.