Hazards SEES Type 2: Next Generation, Resilient Warning Systems for Tornados and Flash Floods

这个多机构项目将设计、开发、演示和评估针对龙卷风和山洪暴发等快速来袭的灾害的下一代、有弹性的预警系统。利用高度时空观测和对低层大气条件的短期预报，该系统将提供以用户为中心的、有背景意识的预报和警告，从而显著改善公众反应。预警系统有助于减轻洪水和龙卷风等自然灾害的负面社会经济影响，过去三年，洪水和龙卷风在美国各地造成2303人受伤，297人死亡，财产和农作物损失85亿美元。随着技术及其应用的发展，随着我们对自然灾害、技术和人类行为之间复杂相互作用的理解的提高，警告也必须演变和改变。这一努力将建立一个系统一级的框架和基础技术，牢牢地植根于对人类行为反应的理解，以更好地利用这些变化，以更好地实现提高人和财产安全的最终目标。这一努力的智力价值集中在开发针对雨和风的实时、高分辨率短时预报的新技术；创建一个新的上下文敏感的通信架构，以有效地传播针对不同人群群体的特定用户信息；开发和测试人类行为反应的新措施；对公众对天气灾害和警告的各种反应的影响有更深入的了解；以及确定将预警系统的社会和技术组成部分联系起来的新方法。研究成果将基于时间、空间和风险考虑被整合到预警系统中，并通过下一代预警系统概念的原型展示。将讨论三个主要趋势：i)所有人口部分的移动电话拥有量迅速增加；ii)新的高时空分辨率X波段雷达短时预报(0-1小时)，可定位灾害风险，并使业务预报员和应急管理人员能够在社区范围内对龙卷风和山洪暴发发出警告；iii)具有复原力的数据传播架构的新概念，能够根据上下文(例如精确位置)或人口统计(例如年龄)来确定天气信息的目标。在达拉斯沃斯堡大都会的现场预警系统实验将提供一个独特的机会来进行实证研究，验证新技术和理论概念。在恶劣天气事件期间，高分辨率雷达产品将被传播给NWS预报员，后者将通过配备有应用程序的移动电话向个人传播实验性的针对地理目标的、背景感知的实时警告，该应用程序记录寻求信息的活动、通信、位置和移动，并启用事件后调查。我们的项目利用了NSF大气协作自适应传感工程研究中心(CASA)的利益相关者伙伴关系、技术和社会技术研究实践，以及能够在下一代网络和应用程序中进行大规模研究的GENI基础设施。这一努力的广泛影响最终将包括改善公共安全和减灾，以及在达拉斯-沃斯堡地区以外的地区应用发达技术的潜力。由德克萨斯州中北部政府委员会、沃思堡市、国家气象局科学和技术办公室等代表组成的顾问委员会将使我们的结果更快地转化为产品和服务，可以在德克萨斯州北部和全国其他地区复制。关于公共反应的研究通过我们对视觉或听力障碍者无障碍危险警报系统的分析，解决了服务不足的人群。针对少数族裔服务机构的K-12教育努力，包括根据我们的公众反应研究，创建关于安全的天气计划。

This multi-institution project will design, develop, demonstrate and evaluate next-generation, resilient warning systems for rapid-onset hazards, such as tornadoes and flash floods. Using high spatio-temporal observations and short-term forecasts of lower-atmospheric conditions, this system will deliver user-centric, context-aware forecasts and warnings resulting in significant improvements in public response. Warning systems help mitigate the negative socio-economic impacts of natural hazards such as floods and tornados, which over the past three years caused 2303 injuries, 297 deaths and $8.5 billion in property and crop damages across the United States. As technology and its application evolve, and as our understanding of complex interactions among natural hazards, technology and human behavior improves, warnings must also evolve and change. This effort will develop a systems-level framework and underlying technology, firmly grounded in an understanding of human behavioral response, to leverage these changes to better meet the ultimate goal of improving safety for both people and property.The intellectual merit of this effort centers upon development of new techniques for real-time, high-resolution nowcasts for rain and wind; creation of a new context-sensitive communication architecture for efficiently disseminating user-specific information tailored to various population segments; development and testing of new measures of human behavioral response; creation of a deeper of understanding of myriad influences on public response to weather hazards and warnings; and identification of new ways to link the social and technical components of the warning system. Research results will be integrated into the warning system based on time, space and risk considerations and demonstrated via prototyping next generation warning system concepts. Three key trends will be addressed: i) The rapid increase in ownership of mobile phones in all segments of the population; ii) New high spatiotemporal resolution X-band radar nowcasts (0- 1 hour) that can localize hazard risk and enable operational forecasters and emergency mangers to warn on a neighborhood-scale for tornados and flash floods; iii) New concepts for resilient data-dissemination architectures that enable targeting of weather information by context, such as precise location, or by demographics such as age. Live warning system experiments in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex will provide a unique opportunity to conduct empirical research, validate new technology and theoretical concepts. During severe weather events, high-resolution radar products will be disseminated to NWS forecasters who in turn will disseminate experimental geo-targeted, context-aware real-time warnings to individuals via mobile phones equipped with an app that logs information-seeking activity, communications, location, and movement, and enables post event surveys. Our project leverages the stakeholder partnerships, technology, and socio-technical research practices of the NSF Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) and the GENI infrastructure that enables at-scale research in next-generation networks and applications.Broader impacts of this effort will ultimately include improved public safety and disaster mitigation and potential for applications of developed technology well beyond the Dallas-Fort Worth region.. An advisory board which includes representatives of the North Central Texas Council of Governments, the City of Fort Worth, the National Weather Service Office of Science and Technology and others will enable faster translation of our results into products and services that can be replicated in north Texas, and other parts of the nation. Research on public response addresses an underserved population through our analysis of the Accessible Hazard Alert System for people with visual or hearing impairments. The K-12 education efforts, directed at minority serving institutions, include the creation of a weather programs on safety, informed by our public response research.